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[打法交流]
赌运亨通 21点是怎么样的赌戏?赌魔戴子郎【1】(转载)
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什么是DB?什么是投资?重要吗?2 x O" Q3 b. D/ M {+ e6 j! H9 u/ ^: Z
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投资学原理定义合理预期平均输的是DB,合理预期平均获利的是投资。买彩券可能中大奖。买股票有(许多)人赔大钱,赚赔的结果不表示是DB或投资。ZF对彩券抽重税,买彩券中大奖机会与被闪电打到差不多,买彩券显然合理预期平均亏本。经济成长买股票长期平均应该会赚,因此股票是投资。
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+ y! N; R2 y5 Z0 ?3 S如果你(用算牌)「玩」21点平均赢钱,你其实是在投资!为什么把玩21点当投资那么重要?因为DB与投资适用不同的心法、原则。DB讲求集中风险,以震盪增加获胜机会(但胜算仍低于五成)。而投资则是「鸡蛋不放一篮中」。分散风险以时间换取低风险长期利润。态度不同,结果大不同。
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$ ]. O, h3 l; n. o7 D& }例如你拿一万元赌本面对负百分之二的赌局,集中赌一把你有百分之四十九的机会赢1万元,百分之五十一输1万元。若分散成10把每把下1000元,一样是下1万元平均输200元10把后赢钱的机会只剩四成。# @' b1 a5 D+ k
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相对一样拿1万元投资正期望值百分之二的投资机会,一把下去胜算百分之五十一,分10把胜算增加为六成。DB不应该分散下注,投资应该。确认你自己在做什么(DB还是投资?)影响下注方式(分散或集中)进而影响结果,不可轻忽。/ J3 H1 a! y6 m! [- |
* \. R, H+ U- N' r+ @统计学已证明在大部分情形下,21点可以用算牌平均击败,因此21点是投资,应该分散风险(凯利下注法)依预期获利率下注。0 [" ?- b( b6 ~7 s$ n
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21点作为一项投资,是什么样的投资?Don Schleisinger曾任Morgan Stanley高级主管,他也是21点专家著有《Blackjack Attack》一书。他计算4万美元算牌客若赌场容许跳注,用凯利合理下注一年可以获利3倍,比一般正常投资获利高。
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一年获利3倍而风险其实不高(依一凯利下注本钱加倍钱输光的风险低于八成七),21点可以说是一个非常好的投资。
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为什么21点的投资报酬率那么高?赌场为什么会提供这样一个对自己不利的赌戏?
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