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被套牢总会涨回来？加密市场并非如此运作
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随着熊市持续数月，市场上抄底的氛围似乎也日渐浓厚，但在风投合伙人Michael Dempsey 最新文章中，他想强调加密货币并不像特定股票有强劲基本面，那些被套牢的币种，并不代表会涨回来，且更可能在下轮牛市中被新崛起的蓝筹资产取代
Michael Dempsey 开头提到，在经历股票市场大屠杀后，当他参加许多对冲基金的年度会议时，过去半年到一年之间一直都有个类似的概念主题：
目前市场已淘汰大量被高估的公司，同时也有一批很棒的公司被不分青红皂白地波及。在大量的市场抛售潮中，陷入困境的稳健企业代表着买入机会。
同样地，加密市场经历了全面抛售，市值缩水至2 兆美元，部分基金经理也谈到某些加密资产被低估的严重程度
Michael 指出，市场是偏向长期上涨的，因此，大家会很轻易地把市场崩盘视为一种有如世纪般的进场机会。但他想强调的是：
崩跌的加密资产，不代表它一定会涨回来
加密货币不比股票
在加密市场中，所谓的护城河、创造价值等概念仍非常模糊。相较于上述强劲股票，部分加密专案所面临的抛压，可能在花费更少精力、新创程度更低的情况下就能实现
Michael 指出，所有竞争公链(Alt-L1 ) 几乎不存在积极、可持续的基本面，DeFi 协议没有护城河可言。关于流动性、TVL 是护城河的说法，Michael 对此则保留怀疑态度，但对于那些GameFi 专案，他认为非常地糟糕，理应被做空
此外，Michael 更想强调的是市场总是汰旧换新
下图时期是Michael 自行设置、由熊转牛的周期范围( 2019/1/1 – 2022/1/1 )，可以看出所有竞争币的表现皆远远落后于新一代的顶级蓝筹代币。
先发优势是否存在？
Michael 承认他的观点有很多讨论空间，大家可能会想强调所谓的「先发优势」在加密领域有多重要，例如USDT、Aave、Uniswap 等在各个领域中的主导地位
但他希望投资者们能够退一步、客观地看待此事
Michael 认为，如果加密投资者们持有(抄底) 的资产，并不是透过基本面的价值所构建的指数，如S&P 500 等，那么很有可能那些所谓的「世纪进场买点」并没有出现，且很可能永远不会出现
换个说法，崩跌的加密资产，不代表它一定会涨回来；在本轮牛市中大放异彩的加密货币，在下个牛市中可能又会被新一代崛起的蓝筹资产所取代
来源：金色财经 |
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