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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;; _2 U9 \- ^" u3 q

5 s0 y' L3 V# p; ]假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;6 w7 e7 I4 }! G  }! ]

$ y( I7 _' `$ m) b' T开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/727 Q1 l4 M) t5 c' ]5 V
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72) l# }' c4 H0 z' X7 v4 K! N; Y

- d/ Y( h% L& l收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5! b1 \6 q  z, l" [, d  D
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;# g# u! I& c: }

9 ?) F( R" e7 Z- \" E- k3 F加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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/ e6 ~# d( i9 ~1 H$ M6 D/ p以上,76gor+ ?9 P' N& k  Z  ~! B# {" G
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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2 g( v  ]  d7 q4 j# ?假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
7 }3 i- O5 V4 ^每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,1527 v  `% Y& O+ a7 J# Z
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500! D# |# ?, e" \4 u; T% w

; O, m( L+ w1 G# W8 ^; Z7 }; o每天净收入为:¥652
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' w0 @" w, m, m' J- h3 X3 v; q% j年收入为:¥237,980
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' }( }6 j6 |: Z: V$ ~/ i+ }唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
5 `0 W- q4 Y$ F: P6 @7 _$ ?唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 1 v- y$ F7 w: C7 w; x; O5 C" r/ r

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?$ ]/ n$ C' M0 \
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
2 \  T, F6 X, I" w+ u6 H/ x0 a5 kbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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9 J" a$ s! a" ~6 d. y4 d( ~2 A    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;$ D& V2 l: ]/ m  z
2 a' {$ G" ^0 F/ f, w
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
3 i9 X4 T4 p- M3 P( [. ]1 y
, f* E7 x( o4 l& Q  L开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...7 J9 Z( {; z) N" G+ L
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
: p+ C$ @5 _1 e' `大概是1%多点9 d8 K6 s& K0 ^6 z+ R3 W% Y+ W1 [
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
; }1 e* z# b  f  G# Q* U) \大概是1%多点5 _: c6 h  r. c5 q0 [) |

5 r; I1 j5 u/ @  q3 V至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
3 p7 Q; p: q7 F8 L9 xtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?( |3 }( g2 d, E. T# t
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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, q7 `% h8 E- |  s   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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$ {$ r1 B4 @3 \1 w; O# ~   有个风险就是豹子吧!
4 v$ U+ F& K# P* ^粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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3 B* ], l5 i- a- m6 I" l! D, L* Z% c/ C5 j4 M/ X
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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