优惠论坛
Well123
注册
找回密码 |
天策评选的优秀公司,所有会员与公司发生的问题我们将负责尽力协助处理。
收起/展开
新晋公司
 

新晋公司具有驻站代表,并不在论坛纠纷服务范围内,请会员自行判断选择

  • 356
S级信誉公司
ManBetX万博
YZ
乐投
taptap(点点)
E世博
瑞丰国际
A级信誉公司
吉祥坊
星宝合营
乐动体育
B级信誉公司
bet365
C级合作公司
CMP
金星
LOKI
平博
  • 推荐主题
  • 热门活动
  • 币圈快讯
  • 商城动态
重要通知
 
论坛搜索
              搜索
Array ( [fid] => 1121 [description] => 天策社区的核心交流圈,会员可在此交流网络菠菜相关内容! [password] => [icon] => 3a/common_1121_icon.png [redirect] => [attachextensions] => [creditspolicy] => Array ( [post] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 10 [extcredits1] => 1 [extcredits2] => 1 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits5] => 1 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 1 [fid] => 1121 [rulename] => 发表主题 [action] => post [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6951,6984,6895,6974,6975,6982,6937,6845,6879,1121 ) [reply] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 0 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 1 [extcredits3] => 10 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 2 [fid] => 1121 [rulename] => 发表回复 [action] => reply [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6951,6984,6895,6974,6975,6982,6937,6845,6879,1121 ) ) [formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";} [moderators] => 实习版主1 天策小编-幸福堂 天策小编-哈尔 [rules] => 策略综合讨论区版规与申明:

1.为了您自身信息安全考虑,除论坛官方TG群外,论坛不提倡创建或加入Q群,对出现推广网址/QQ号/QQ群/微博/微信号/手机号/联系方式的主题及回帖,版主会作屏蔽、删帖、禁言等处理。
2.为避免不法份子发帖诈骗,无论何种类型的讨要红包帖、借钱帖一律删除。
3.转载主题请注明出处,未注明与复制论坛已有主题者,将被扣除20经验/100活跃币/1000策小分及移贴、删帖处罚。
4.同一会员或客服就同一公司的主题帖,每天最多可发布5帖,超出部分版主会作移帖处理。
5.综合讨论大厅每人每日最多可发布20个主题帖。
6.仅限回复7天内的主题帖,如回复7天前主题帖视为“挖坟”。
7.版规可能存在不完善,任何利用版规钻漏洞的都将予以严惩。论坛拥有最终解释权并会不断完善规章制度。
8.大厅不处理纠纷与咨询性质主题,如有需要请移步【咨询驻站客服区】,同时版主保留锁帖/移贴操作的权限。 [threadtypes] => Array ( [required] => 1 [listable] => 1 [prefix] => 1 [types] => Array ( [111] => 论坛公告 [1446] => 天策快讯 [114] => 天策特约 [593] => 公司优惠 [109] => 综合讨论 [1619] => 天策嗨聊 [1445] => 晒奖分享 [878] => 吐槽大会 [1481] => 实战直播 [1605] => 科学上网 [1606] => 真人 [1608] => 彩票 [1609] => 棋牌 [1610] => 电竞 [1611] => 电子 [1750] => 天策解说 [1660] => 入驻合作 ) [icons] => Array ( [111] => [1446] => [114] => [593] => [109] => [1619] => [1445] => [878] => [1481] => [1605] => [1606] => [1608] => [1609] => [1610] => [1611] => [1750] => [1660] => ) [moderators] => Array ( [111] => 1 [1446] => 1 [114] => 1 [593] => [109] => [1619] => 1 [1445] => [878] => [1481] => [1605] => [1606] => [1608] => [1609] => [1610] => [1611] => [1750] => [1660] => ) ) [threadsorts] => Array ( ) [viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 [postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [spviewperm] => [seotitle] => 综合讨论大厅 [keywords] => 玩家交流,优惠红利,各类活动,策略理论, [seodescription] => 综合讨论大厅志在为真实玩家带来一个干净公正的交流平台,在这里可以学习到各种打法以及下注心得 [supe_pushsetting] => [modrecommend] => Array ( [open] => 0 [sort] => 1 [orderby] => 3 [num] => 5 [imagenum] => 5 [imagewidth] => 200 [imageheight] => 150 [maxlength] => 0 [cachelife] => 900 [dateline] => 0 ) [threadplugin] => Array ( ) [replybg] => [extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:7:"#000000";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";} [jointype] => 0 [gviewperm] => 0 [membernum] => 0 [dateline] => 0 [lastupdate] => 0 [activity] => 0 [founderuid] => 0 [foundername] => [banner] => [groupnum] => 0 [commentitem] => [relatedgroup] => [picstyle] => 0 [widthauto] => 0 [noantitheft] => 0 [noforumhidewater] => 0 [noforumrecommend] => 0 [livetid] => 0 [price] => 0 [fup] => 6729 [type] => forum [name] => 天策综合讨论大厅 [status] => 1 [displayorder] => 1 [styleid] => 0 [threads] => 1019302 [posts] => 16777215 [todayposts] => 844 [yesterdayposts] => 732 [rank] => 1 [oldrank] => 1 [lastpost] => 2776664 情绪价值越来越显得重要 1761493229 我也来辣 [domain] => [allowsmilies] => 1 [allowhtml] => 1 [allowbbcode] => 1 [allowimgcode] => 1 [allowmediacode] => 1 [allowanonymous] => 0 [allowpostspecial] => 21 [allowspecialonly] => 0 [allowappend] => 0 [alloweditrules] => 1 [allowfeed] => 0 [allowside] => 0 [recyclebin] => 1 [modnewposts] => 2 [jammer] => 1 [disablewatermark] => 0 [inheritedmod] => 0 [autoclose] => 0 [forumcolumns] => 4 [catforumcolumns] => 0 [threadcaches] => 0 [alloweditpost] => 1 [simple] => 16 [modworks] => 1 [allowglobalstick] => 1 [level] => 0 [commoncredits] => 0 [archive] => 0 [recommend] => 0 [favtimes] => 38 [sharetimes] => 0 [disablethumb] => 0 [disablecollect] => 0 [ismoderator] => 0 [threadtableid] => 0 [allowreply] => [allowpost] => [allowpostattach] => )
打印 上一主题 下一主题
认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
  [复制链接]
avatar
跳转到指定楼层
1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
! I! E0 E+ w- w
4 Z; G0 @; W, N4 ^) N刚刚认真计算了一次;# v! z! [$ S% N2 v( G7 P

* M2 \% J! R$ O- F- }假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
% t* h! B5 K! h2 T! {/ M  y  b) Z: X/ Y4 C- ]' @# G/ {& y
开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
  n& R" z6 g2 l
' k! I& s4 Z5 T& h/ V开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72  ?5 K+ ~3 _8 I& a$ g
# M, m/ b3 @+ S$ U. k0 U
开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72% v2 E3 s: Y1 e0 [# {% I8 N

8 ~, n2 I! u( g4 `5 B5 k5 @' n( C) J收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
% h- l( F- l. l. ?- c2 q1 F/ s8 ~. Q6 ]
- r% ?1 ^. E% a$ \( h
所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;& f& E8 P8 z9 @- ?( S! b
; n: W# W# h( @" H' |
加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
9 G9 h- S+ }9 J; l# k. X( J- T8 H) d( {' f$ _
以上,76gor- L  p$ |3 Z! Q( h
avatar
2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
0 z" _- E8 y2 r/ b4 z& x/ T
/ ?% z; ~9 i" q, Y  d+ n/ q+ _假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,( F( g+ G& w- Y# o+ R7 ^

8 `6 U0 x+ p" j一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
# i; `3 h3 z: X5 T8 G2 _$ x每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152" x( `5 J* ^) L4 `) y0 T, I# u
8 Q5 v8 A" ]' I, V5 A3 Z1 t( B( K  h
假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
3 K5 p% K( H4 \! ^' K7 r; Z" L
$ L: }8 Q; \/ f$ W( }: H1 L每天净收入为:¥652/ G; t: F# F+ Q3 Q/ J: }0 S

1 [" T! e2 a2 z' q: H年收入为:¥237,980* y2 I/ |5 o+ X8 {3 o4 r

7 t- \  ?! ]' L! i( W# b% l唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
4 d- c! J# H- Y- A% f0 b0 X2 q" h0 H唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
, s. h  J  J7 A: T4 V2 N5 N' S, V
8 t2 z1 e; `3 b0 L5 n
avatar
3#
回复 2# 76gor
3 Z0 i: {- S" T$ d- a/ W% h2 Z7 \; z1 t4 u; b2 t! v  {, A

% Q8 C' x& |5 d5 ?" b: i0 P6 u   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
avatar
4#
感谢76分享阿
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
avatar
6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
avatar
7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?, N6 E! n( ]$ M8 b* P. Y. Y
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
7 j( H" w4 _. R* y2 v+ u- Z8 C, ^$ |

' t+ X" L+ c# n( l. `( E4 m4 T+ G; t, N
    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
avatar
8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,) o  \, y0 U. s* _, b8 v$ b
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

0 ~$ h% g/ c" O9 ~
; M/ ~- R  d% Y# X- c* I& Y: z. R: m
. G9 [& k( ]+ H0 P    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
avatar
9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
avatar
10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
avatar
11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
2 n4 E/ B5 T5 m7 @
& U1 a( X, Z! |" r1 H0 p4 \假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ l, N8 t  l0 G" n

9 V4 Q  j1 H0 i. t% Q开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
% l  S8 h) L, w3 U/ ^$ w) H$ c, M76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
% T5 ^. e* F; m* q9 o2 Y

- W5 I5 q2 a- h0 I& x) ^; p3 y
+ ~3 F5 x; X5 |0 [; m/ ?% ^2 e楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
. Y$ O7 o1 V. {) t9 N2 N0 P大概是1%多点0 F. k; M& f( i6 B8 U/ E5 n1 a
4 f+ F- {. `& b2 p' b, z
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
avatar
12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
* i( }% z! `7 [大概是1%多点* O5 {# |2 @* [1 }
' A+ m( X1 Q3 a6 m! N
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...3 O4 b, w  R8 Z; t+ s1 _
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

5 J* T/ w8 j8 x7 q1 ?
+ A7 Q5 [  v& ?; N
1 _( |. j! z- [. H! u+ w* C    请指教
avatar
13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
avatar
14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
avatar
15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
4 {3 B4 y, f8 {粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

$ u/ h3 N# A$ e' Q& V3 i" e9 u  D% B1 B  l( W5 H4 ]
4 ~, h- N+ ~# {) n
    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
avatar
16#
回复 15# 76gor ( X3 U; p8 x, v

' i. Z8 v( C1 c4 E$ A/ D/ o  L2 t4 W  V6 c* i
   有个风险就是豹子吧!
avatar
17#
回复  76gor
- |. ?- q/ U/ x0 |- X9 \7 `8 q6 u+ }

* g# w* m  a/ q: z! d) z: o   有个风险就是豹子吧!
) o  M( @+ [. I( W; a- {粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

5 h% z) {- M( X7 T; Z4 q  o2 x2 u; S* Z
! T/ l8 \/ @  A  W7 q4 K
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
12345下一页
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 论坛注册

本版积分规则

:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
{:8_298:} {:8_299:} {:8_300:} {:8_301:}
{:8_302:} {:8_303:} {:8_304:} {:8_305:}
{:8_306:} {:8_307:} {:8_308:} {:8_309:}
{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


Powered by 天策论坛   © 2007-2025 天策论坛 | 小黑屋 | 手机|
1717 : 0