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股神特朗普又双叒操盘，48 小时截止时间前放软话
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比推消息，美国总统特朗普周末在 Truth Social 上向伊朗发出高调 48 小时最后通牒：若伊朗不在 48 小时内毫无威胁地全面开放霍尔木兹海峡，美军将打击并彻底摧毁伊朗所有发电厂，从最大的一座开始！这条硬核表态迅速推高全球油价，布伦特原油一度飙升，市场恐慌情绪升温，美股承压。伊朗方面则强硬回应，称若其能源设施遭袭，将针对中东地区所有美国及以色列能源、水利设施进行报复。
然而，就在通牒截止前夕，特朗普态度出现戏剧性 180 度转弯：下令暂停对伊朗发电厂的轰炸，并宣布临时停火 5 天，为谈判留出窗口。
这一先硬后软的操作瞬间让市场反转，油价回落，股市反弹。熟悉特朗普风格的投资者早已将这种模式总结为TACO 交易（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是临阵退缩）。早在 2025 年关税战期间，这一缩写就在华尔街流行：特朗普经常先放狠话制造恐慌、压低资产价格，随后退缩或延期，导致市场快速反弹获利。本次伊朗事件被视为 TACO 的最新翻版：先极限施压，导致油价/恐慌资产暴涨，随后快速软化，引发空头回补、风险资产反弹。
有分析指出，这种高开低走的操盘手法已成为特朗普第二任期标志性风格之一，尤其在地缘政治与贸易谈判双线并行时屡试不爽。目前，美以对伊战争已进入第 4 周，霍尔木兹海峡仍未完全开放，地面部队调动迹象明显，但特朗普的暂停轰炸+5 天停火是否只是新一轮 TACO，还是真正转向外交解决，仍需观察后续 48 小时发展。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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