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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。 N: Z5 L$ }; ?
1 e/ R9 k! b7 M4 |3 Q, Z市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。6 @+ g/ _* n% v
一、先说技术面
. h" {, ?2 U9 J0 h* B9 `! ?% Q这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！4 s6 T$ F" k: V/ C" P3 ?! e x' h
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！
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( q4 P; M/ |" y+ s8 Q& {: e二、再看宏观9 Z+ e4 z' ~- W+ e
以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。
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2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。/ \ {: s0 N' Q) |# D
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ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！5 I( l4 O/ Y! [/ k& Q- A
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7 r- P! z$ u/ P交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。! C/ K9 A, M4 w/ r- B$ C3 Z
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜: u4 d! {0 m! S
三、机构在买，而不是跑! y: J7 W# Y' A& _. x/ @) z2 X0 q7 ~
散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
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+ I' u6 G; M+ u. b# e+ ]+ Z% l" \1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
: t3 f1 x5 L$ K. A8 m近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
) h% w5 p7 ]+ W: ]+ E四、2026 年路线图聚焦
0 U& Y6 E+ a+ Z) U8 t6 h/ Z升级方向包括：
+ H s8 H! `3 e0 `7 I; D提升 Gas 上限
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增强 L2 互操作性
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, M4 n6 H3 \9 N$ v' u" m7 \扩展零知识基础设施0 U# k2 y7 @7 m0 `' d
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账户抽象
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u8 a/ f. q5 ?$ A5 D6 b7 d抗量子安全3 D( X: }( [% F- K1 c" h5 l9 m
$ ?9 J0 s9 n% O3 z5 C) a! n: e1 q, e8 zHarden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”
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+ d3 t* P8 i) X, F所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。0 C7 o9 I; T7 [+ }: l' e! @
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这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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