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[lastpost] => 2799958 被错误定价的未来：为何当下是顶级加密项目的“黄金窗口期”？（转） 1769180710 我也来辣
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[虚拟币交流]
这就是为什么现在还不应该否定比特币牛市前景的原因！（转）
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比特币价格在最近几个交易日表现平平，该加密货币再次进入 88,000 美元至 91,000 美元之间的盘整阶段——此前它曾突破过这一区间。# h9 u! l' q! I+ ?: D
1 ~) ^. c, O- E( U; | W关于市场是否已进入更广泛的熊市阶段的争论再次浮出水面，双方的数据点都支持这一观点。一些结构性和链上因素仍然发挥着作用，并可能影响比特币的下一步主要走势。7 Q7 ^+ D/ V2 v7 _5 N* P o7 P9 J, ?2 |
; p9 I7 i# a5 N& g( z投资者盈利能力仍然至关重要; P8 q. h# i2 ?0 L4 U. f2 k
比特币 [BTC]短期稳定性似乎越来越依赖于市场结构，尤其是利润型股票的持有比例。分析师通常将这种情况描述为潜在利润——在这种情况下，投资者更倾向于持有而非出售。
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$ u" V# U0 j3 Y据 CryptoQuant 称，当至少 75% 的比特币流通供应量处于盈利状态时，通常会出现这种环境。在这种情况下，投资者情绪往往保持乐观，从而降低了抛售压力巨大的可能性。
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比特币虽然短暂进入这一区域，但此后该指标已回落至供应量的71.5%（盈利）。持续下跌可能会增加下行风险，并有可能将价格推向8万美元以下的区间。 L) r7 ] l8 f8 P: _' M
3 c! c6 H/ B3 ~* e6 U: a O尽管如此，反弹之路依然畅通。如果供给利润率回升至75%-80%的区间，则有望恢复相对稳定，并支撑持续上涨趋势。
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/ H; u" D q, r- ^针对这一局面，链上分析师 Darkfost 表示，市场“应该能够稳定下来，并为真正的牛市复苏奠定更坚实的基础”。: X1 s3 r" o$ C2 f4 i9 W8 _) W
& h+ {/ W3 l _# y( S! O鲸鱼趁零售业退出之际介入$ J! H$ K. J) p" N
尽管今年 1 月份市场波动加剧，但鲸鱼股的信心依然强劲，而且似乎有所增强。
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通常持有较小比特币仓位且交易时间较短的散户投资者，一直在逢低卖出。而巨鲸投资者则采取了截然相反的做法。2 x n+ W$ ?! [$ c7 Q* A, c; i
: J7 Q* K8 x. X这些持有大量比特币的巨鲸，掌握着相当可观的比特币供应量，能够影响整个市场的走向。事实上，数据显示，巨鲸持有量的月度增幅已攀升至1月初以来的最高水平，凸显了比特币的持续增持。截至发稿时，巨鲸的比特币余额接近320万枚。. g$ Z% d! x9 U6 J M$ U0 n, r+ ^
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这似乎也与流入累积地址的资金不断增加相吻合，证实了这些大持有者中有一部分可能是活跃的买家。! |( Y) H) w* b- W7 v) h2 g
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综上所述，一些投资者将当前价格水平视为以折扣价买入比特币的良机。这也可能意味着他们正在为比特币整体上涨趋势的延续做准备。: a) @0 _2 H" v
& d a- P7 t) D1 Z. B长期持有者依然不受影响' [) w+ U# }4 _& R3 f* }6 o/ G1 D
最后，长期持有者的行为似乎也与鲸鱼的行为一致。% @4 A* X! D1 u- h% g' L3 }
# \) F7 y9 W6 L4 f5 @1 X. P二元币销毁天数 (CDD) 指标的取值范围为 0 到 1，用于追踪长期持有的比特币是否处于交易活跃状态。数值越接近 1，通常表示交易活动越活跃，往往与抛售有关；而数值接近 0 则表示长期持有的比特币处于静止状态。
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目前，长期持有者二元CDD遗迹0，表明这些投资者继续持有他们的仓位，并对价格保持长期展望。
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2 l" H* _ e# C/ n+ X目前来看，巨鲸和长期持有者的综合行为表明，只需额外3.5%的比特币供应量重新获利，就能使市场恢复到75%的阈值。历史上，这一水平与更高的稳定性和更强劲的价格结构相关。
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G6 ?, @- w7 [7 C最后想说的话
, U( | C2 V9 I4 l8 h, p比特币的盈利供应量仍然是评估市场是否正在滑入熊市阶段或为新一轮牛市行情做准备的关键指标。
; Z) q) w4 p6 T8 x! z; O尽管散户投资者不断撤出，但巨鲸投资者却一直在增加投资。0 C7 |2 j; D. M' D9 ?
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