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[虚拟币交流]
21Shares为何押注比特币和黄金的相关性转正而同时上涨？（转）
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21Shares推出了一款融合比特币和黄金的新型交易所交易产品。此举正值比特币和黄金价格走势再次趋于同步之际，标志着投资者在全球投资组合中对待加密货币的方式正在发生转变。
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21Shares 比特币 Gold ETP [大胆的] 于 1 月 13 日在伦敦证券交易所上市，通过单一产品为投资者提供受监管的比特币和实物黄金投资机会。
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7 y0 A/ D4 b" w& n* e* J7 O虽然比特币被宣传为一种多元化投资工具，但其推出的时机与一个日益增长的宏观趋势密切相关：比特币和黄金越来越像互补的对冲资产，而不是相互竞争的交易。% Q u2 n- B* P. r s: ?/ O
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这种关系至关重要，因为黄金历来是世界上主要的价值储存资产。
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) S) k2 z( r6 \' g9 Z与此同时，过去两年里，比特币的交易方式更像是高贝塔系数的科技股。而现在，这种趋势似乎正在发生转变。, F* q% v2 S" H3 B; a* Q0 Q# Z5 P
& u' |" V3 W% I6 d" s% M' D比特币和黄金的价格走势又开始趋于一致了。
' f+ I) z: v$ Q/ T" V* ]2 N近期市场数据显示，比特币和黄金在经历了数月的背离后，开始重新趋于一致。
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自 9 月以来，黄金价格已上涨近 28%，从约 3,600 美元攀升至超过 4,590 美元，而比特币价格已从 12 月中旬接近 86,000 美元的低点反弹约 9%，至超过 94,000 美元。
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来源：TradingView4 Q) C& n( T) @ ]: H9 g: ]
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更重要的是，相关性指标证实了这一转变。黄金与20周期的相关性Bitcoin已升至 +0.56，为数月来最强正值。4 |2 l6 c4 t' R# e0 d2 g
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与此同时，比特币与黄金的相关性指标在 10 月和 11 月处于深度负值之后，已经回落至接近零。1 B" M* u! B! o7 N9 [: }( b
5 Y# Y: U4 q y; F" _0 W来源：TradingView$ u3 n4 I$ k0 G$ e5 w8 `5 O0 H
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这表明资本又开始将比特币和黄金视为同一宏观风险体系的一部分——这种体系直接支持了像 BOLD 这样的多资产产品。
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( t' `+ ?! o8 U+ eBOLD 的结构# ]1 g/ T$ a& M: u. k \
BOLD该产品结合了比特币和黄金的投资，采用基于规则的反向波动率加权系统。它不会手动调整资产配置，而是自动将权重重新分配给当时更为稳定的资产。
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- t5 o n6 G7 X; M如果比特币波动性加剧，BOLD 会增加对黄金的配置。! h' G, e6 m& W4 F" V- [( w" \' I
# \- b- c8 ~, N如果黄金价格波动加剧，比特币的权重将会增加。
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这样可以保持投资组合的整体风险平衡，防止任何一种资产在市场承压期间占据主导地位。7 ^$ F+ ?0 y/ f% ~; l. V7 e+ i
9 e# Z* I* ~$ }- K该产品每月进行资产再平衡，目前管理资产规模约为 4010 万美元。7 q2 i0 w1 u5 u
) g( D- k$ T* N) _6 P1 j* _( I& }- x据报道，该基金三年夏普比率为 1.79。它收取 0.65% 的年管理费，并有实物支持，比特币和黄金由机构级托管人持有。
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! H3 P9 b% ^4 C' ^: c1 h比特币角色转变的信号: k x. ~# x1 h- I% z( E
在2024年和2025年的大部分时间里，比特币的交易价格与股票和风险资产高度相关，限制了其作为对冲工具的效用。但其与黄金的相关性不断上升，表明这种情况可能正在发生改变。
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3 c" I1 s1 G, }6 Q1 w如果这种趋势继续下去，比特币可能会在货币和地缘ZZ不确定时期重新发挥其作为投资组合稳定器的作用——而这正是黄金历来蓬勃发展的环境。4 y! t" X/ p0 V) R/ e" j
- C) Z W9 w6 [最后想说的话
% B; v/ W8 a* S1 }$ d, h0 [比特币已从 12 月的低点反弹约 9%，而黄金自 9 月以来上涨了近 28%，相关性数据显示，这两种资产正在回归相同的宏观经济格局。7 M: B2 S" ?, v% Q
这对 BOLD 来说很重要，因为 21Shares 的这款新 ETP 正是利用了这种局面——比特币和黄金作为通胀对冲工具同步波动，而不是作为相反的风险资产。
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