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[lastpost] => 2768303 超过 180 家上市公司持有比特币，且数量还将上升（转） 1758631332 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
从对立到共存？德银预测：黄金与比特币未来或同列央行储备（转）
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财联社9月23日讯（编辑 夏军雄）黄金和加密货币在短期内走势迥异，但德意志银行认为，两者未来几年有望并肩发展。
( U% P. ~3 z( R8 x; _4 n“到2030年，央行资产负债表上可能同时出现黄金和比特币的身影，”德银分析师Marion Laboure与Camilla Siazon在最新报告中写道。
' l1 N3 M$ Z; E8 N8 P: z% ?1 g这一乐观判断出现在比特币周一跌破11.3万美元之后，而黄金当天则创下每盎司3703美元的历史新高。这种背离走势凸显出加密货币等高风险资产与传统避险资产的短期差异。2 v h0 L- P4 P V
德银指出，交易员正在权衡地缘ZZ紧张局势、美联储降息预期以及其独立性问题，这些因素都推动了黄金的需求。
2 ?$ X" ]+ a7 f/ k2 W& y尽管如此，德银的报告强调，2025年对黄金和比特币而言都是“极佳的一年”。
9 J6 A7 N. j/ n& u, m0 [6 O黄金需求依然强劲，主要受央行增持和投资者对稳定价值储存手段的需求推动。
1 z, K0 l( n# o0 H$ k4 W- ~- Y: L世界黄金协会今年公布的一项调查显示，43%的央行预计未来12个月将增加黄金储备，95%预期全球央行储备规模会上升。
/ P( Y, i+ b1 m比特币虽然在周一回调，但整体表现仍具韧性。德银分析师称，比特币在8月创下新高后，波动率降至历史低位，表明机构投资者接纳度持续提升。/ i4 |& J q8 t- `, Y- z
目前已有逾180家公司将加密货币纳入资产负债表，其中最著名的当属MicroStrategy，这家软件公司已积累价值超过700亿美元的比特币。 Z' x4 k9 e6 m1 n+ K9 Z4 P
德银分析师指出，比特币的表现凸显其“正在崛起为潜在宏观对冲工具”的地位，这表明数字资产可能正在与传统储备资产并列。
. d& h* P5 ` J) N- J报告称：“我们相信加密货币（比特币）还有更大的上涨空间。”
! X0 d% n0 B+ u$ c2 ^2 F3 T1 w* B报告还抛出一个更长期的问题：随着美元占全球储备比重从2000年的60%下降至2024年的43%，未来十年央行储备结构将如何演变？2 a1 A; n$ X4 e3 _! \" T
虽然黄金长期以来一直在外汇储备组合中占据主导地位，但德银分析师认为，审慎配置比特币可与传统资产形成互补。
Y3 F4 O4 I! ?“尽管全球黄金储备规模不断上升，但央行对黄金的需求仍然保持高位，”Laboure和Siazon写道。“高通胀、地缘ZZ不稳定和去美元化趋势，再加上监管对加密货币的支持，都令当局愈发重新评估储备结构。”6 n, n. F8 T: B- `
部分市场观察人士依旧谨慎。比特币的剧烈波动意味着其作为对冲工具存在风险，尤其在市场动荡时。相比之下，黄金则继续凭借长期避险记录，在不确定时期获得投资者青睐。
; Q8 g; B# q/ B不过，德银补充道：“只要我们还是人类，比特币和其他另类资产很可能会继续与传统资产竞争，吸引我们的关注。”
, ~0 W! U- {. l4 J; {* ^* `（财联社 夏军雄）$ F( u. Y1 R- ^) w0 u( _- c
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黄金稳如老狗比特币上蹿下跳，最后居然要一起躺央行保险柜 |
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