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12万人一夜爆仓！美联储动动嘴皮，币圈韭菜又哭了！（转）
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昨天晚上币圈那叫一个惨烈啊！比特币、以太坊这些大佬币，还有狗狗币这种网红币，统统往下栽。比特币稍微好点，也就蹭破点皮，跌了不到半个点。以太坊就惨了，掉了快一个半。最惨是狗狗币，直接给干趴下，跌了超过百分之五！好家伙，就一天功夫，超过12万个账户爆仓，裤衩子都亏没了！这哪是炒币啊，简直是渡劫！这波为啥跌这么狠？大伙儿都瞅着美联储呢。他们过几天（9月18号）就要开会宣布利息的事了。现在市场上几乎都赌定了（92%的把握），美联储这回要降息，而且是降25个基点（就是0.25%）。按理说降息是好事啊，钱便宜了，市场该乐呵才对。可坏就坏在，这钱便宜了，东西也跟着贵了！
. Y2 {8 N1 n' _& p% [) b# H. i美国那边刚出的数据，上个月那核心物价（就是除掉油啊吃的这些波动大的）跟去年比涨了3.1%。这还不算，突然跑去领失业救济金的人也一下子多起来了，涨到26万3，这可是打2021年10月以来头一回见这么多。这数据一出来，味道就有点不对了。
: ^% d; j5 P H& Z中航证券那老大哥董忠云就敲警钟了：大伙儿别光乐呵降息啊！小心点！现在那关税问题还没整明白呢，万一它推着物价继续往上拱，那美联储搞不好就不敢降那么多息了，或者磨磨唧唧慢慢降。更麻烦的是，万一搞出个“经济半死不活，物价还死贵”的局面（他们叫“类滞胀”），那上面那些管钱的可就真没多少招儿能使了，情况更棘手！
8 s0 B; f1 {8 ^! P% `天朝银行研究院的王有鑫也琢磨这事儿呢。他说啊，现在关键就看美国这经济能不能“软着陆”——就是别摔太狠。要是运气好，真能平稳落地，那降息确实能撑住资产价格，大伙儿日子还好过点。可要是经济情况真恶化了，走歪了，那市场就得重新掂量掂量那些公司到底还能不能赚钱了，这一掂量，估计又得吓跑不少人，市场还得往下掉。
7 t% Y3 L' p* L' Q$ X. ^, p: v e1 t那咱们这些小散户，钱包里没几个钢镚的，该咋整？别傻乎乎跟着瞎乐！2 }1 | U, K( [! y! Z+ g/ v
第一，得提防“希望越大失望越大”。现在市场这帮人，心里美着呢，觉得今年能降息三次。可万一美联储抠抠搜搜，没降够数，或者拖拖拉拉，那预期落空，市场准得闹脾气，给你来个“惊喜”（其实是惊吓）。
/ L' x) E' ~# T+ g. E4 U" p. X9 u第二，现在美联储这帮人就认死理，看数据说话。啥就业数据啊、物价数据啊，出来一个，他们脸色就变一次，政策也跟着调。这就搞得市场跟抽风似的，一会儿上一会儿下，那波动，心脏不好的真受不了。7 s0 `* w* p- _' G
第三，你瞅瞅，最近美股那边还创新高呢，这边币圈就血流成河了。以前那种“美股涨、币圈也涨”的联动，好像有点不灵光了？这资产之间怎么个玩法，感觉规则在变，咱得多留个心眼儿。' D9 X6 M7 i6 {# ~) U- t8 G2 y
那具体咋办？别慌，记几点保命招：
" J- s; B; `; e6 I) j' d7 q" J管住手，别加太大杠杆！ 这次爆仓这么多人，十有八九是借钱（加杠杆）玩太猛了。市场稍微抖一抖，直接就给你清出场。记住历史教训，那行情上下蹦跶的幅度得心里有数，别把身家性命都压上。1 x; a* Z4 G p9 X/ F$ `% y
看数据也得会挑重点。 别瞎看一堆数字眼花。盯紧点美国劳工部出的就业报告，还有物价数据里面那些供应链啊、商品服务分项啥的，这些玩意儿能提前告诉你通胀下一步怎么走。
: g0 E8 ^, o' P( ~0 Y2 k2 e脑子过过最坏情况。 万一真出现那“经济不行、物价还高”的倒霉局面（就是专家说的类滞胀），你打算咋办？比如，是不是该买点黄金这种避险的玩意儿？或者有没有啥工具能对冲一下这种剧烈波动？先想好预案，真到那天不至于抓瞎。
. d) H+ B' n1 b* ]' Z3 B; i1 w说到底，这市场啊，总是在大家想的和现实发生的那个缝里来回折腾。聪明人不当赌徒，咱就当个明白的观察者。看准了，再下手，别蒙着头瞎冲！
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