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[lastpost] => 2754091 “比特币八月诅咒要来了？”富爸爸清崎竟然拍手叫好？疯狂的背后藏着什么算盘？ 1754452049 AOU1888
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比特币在7月份创下12.34万美元的历史新高后，经历了7%的回调。BTC正在测试第四季度顺风的强度，因为Netflow、NVT和OTC余额等链上指标早期发出了看涨信号。
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4 f8 Z! w S: U& ~9 ?比特币[BTC] 7 月份达到了 123,400 美元的历史最高水平，但在技术调整和宏观压力下，8 月初回落 7% 至 114,000 美元。7 L7 |- a, Y( O; n" h2 `: X
; j: ]" ~* L+ f1 m& ?3 `3 X从历史上看，比特币在第四季度蓬勃发展，这种季节性强势可能会再次出现。) | ^! A$ }6 A9 E' }
% b/ d. [2 y5 r5 D% z与此同时，币安的稳定币储备量仍然很高，建议大量场外资金等待重新进入市场。技术面和基本面催化剂的结合为市场创造了有利条件。3 l' J3 c& f) d1 K
) ^& X+ @ m+ [! V然而，由于市场普遍饱和且情绪参差不齐，比特币能否继续其价格探索之旅，迈向 20 万美元还是停滞不前，仍不确定。) q% @1 _4 [% T8 l6 U
9 e& u: a0 M$ i1 A7 s8 A5 t8 D4 q0 E投资者是否正在为通过持续的比特币流出迎接第四季度的反弹做准备？
, m0 x6 |1 ]; \" a* v, S5 o4 ?8 月 5 日，比特币交易所流出资金达 2149 万美元，延续了自 4 月中旬以来长期的负净流量趋势。
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1 @" K0 ^! t$ b& c9 c从历史上看，持续的资金流出表明持有者大量积累，因为货币退出交易所进行长期存储。
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# |( L) m: ?' d8 c这种趋势降低了卖方压力，并且通常预示着看涨反弹。然而，由于价格走势滞后，看涨情况仍未得到证实。. t& |/ M6 H. Q, ^
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没有需求的吸筹只会让供应处于边缘化状态。交易员需要先观察后续走势，才能判断市场已经触底。3 u4 Q, e( t' y
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这是否暗示网络实力将得到恢复？
9 @ @) M( U' X" |" {: Z! v7 [截至发稿时，比特币的 NVT 比率下跌超过 32%，稳定在 29.2，这表明网络价值与实际交易量之间的一致性更高。
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3 _. ?* q2 x; f4 @& ^NVT 比率下降意味着当前估值更多地取决于链上效用而非投机。1 {8 _( y: x) i6 Z1 H3 j2 Q2 X
* V1 t# m' B5 B* y. B$ d$ j从历史上看，这种下跌往往是价格上涨的前兆，尤其是在需求上升的情况下。然而，这种信号需要具体背景来判断。
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比特币矿工通过持有历史最低的场外交易余额来表明信心吗？
( X$ J* q; @# e0 S矿工的场外交易余额已降至仅 147.5K BTC，为多年来的最低水平，表明出售时必须极其谨慎。
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& y' N& K. o7 S0 a/ S8 O9 ~1 y6 m这种模式表明矿工并不急于以当前价格套现，这通常被解读为长期看涨信号。
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, A8 q. a) k5 K: v; y6 ?6 x当矿工减少抛售压力时，市场上的流动性供应就会减少。这与历史趋势相符，即在大牛市之前也会出现类似的下跌。
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然而，需求必须介入才能利用供应减少的优势。否则，单靠被边缘化的货币可能不足以显著提振市场。
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经过数月的动荡之后，市场情绪终于恢复了吗？
' x8 K$ K2 F+ w经过数月的剧烈波动后，比特币的加权情绪已转为正值，截至发稿时稳定在 0.186。
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这种温和的复苏反映了交易员的谨慎乐观情绪。5月和6月的市场情绪飙升是短暂的，暗示市场仍然对外部触发因素较为敏感。+ c+ T5 \- N1 ]. s/ Y
0 v) _4 c- {5 w8 H+ \' J' O9 a然而，近期的稳定可能表明信心正在逐步重建。但这必须依靠价格表现来维持。0 D; C; z$ h9 c* o. L5 z, K' @
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因此，如果比特币在未来几周内保持在关键支撑区域之上，尤其是在第四季度临近之际，市场情绪可能会进一步改善。2 @* W" t7 n- A1 T
+ p3 g( q1 g9 a( }总而言之，尽管多个链上信号有利于看涨趋势的延续，包括 NVT 下降、矿工供应限制和持续的资金流出，但比特币的下一阶段取决于需求和情绪的复苏。
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如果第四季度的季节性因素和币安的稳定币储备转化为实际的市场行动，BTC 可能会恢复价格发现，朝着 20 万美元迈进。* L5 n' u# N/ y4 p: P
3 ^ @; P" L5 U& I否则，市场饱和和犹豫情绪可能会阻碍涨势。
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