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以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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7 g( N8 a$ h7 L以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。- s5 B) e% S: A6 _4 K
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毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。# s0 F" {$ {1 Z0 }! r/ f& W
/ a; i8 K, L1 d) R5 [要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。! J: D8 x4 \4 z+ M7 C5 J( n5 e
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧4 Z$ p$ J' d" J6 u
有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。
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3 K2 p& w8 l$ u) ^: U, {" t: T该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。9 T- {4 v1 I/ v2 ~( R8 N
0 y4 \' N4 U8 SETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。) q' L* S. V9 e1 R
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但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。
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1 \ m8 i# q6 u4 [随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。! T- J" {0 o1 \
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快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。) f- S( Z( W7 W% Z+ S
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因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。
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但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？
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ETH 奠定了坚实的基础6 ~ S6 i3 i* j) Y& B* |0 s4 w
以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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K! Y/ i4 t8 `* z: t1 \6 Z至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。8 o# l, w7 |# [9 R* O
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来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。9 r4 l* K$ M9 S
5 @* Q2 c, M$ u8 c' Y有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。# ]: ^$ Q0 `3 l& ]6 E2 H5 G
# a2 \3 l0 d3 \3 l6 Z2 }, F( v事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。0 |4 [! ?) N& f( A1 m) b
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这种分歧很重要。6 \7 i3 ]/ C; `+ E, [
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将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。, Y9 j1 f* n- J
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