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[lastpost] => 2761572 学“微策略”翻车？比特币没涨，Metaplanet 股价先跌惨 1757003127 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎' }9 r5 ?1 B9 b1 |- j: x; {) u
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？+ E: K) T0 i; s
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。 m$ r) g! Y+ D! `) N6 P9 ]
& E; {1 t+ I. G Q然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。3 j" W% e# ~4 D: b
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?8 o& h; E; ?: I: x
, a) I V1 M' y3 j! H: _# _5 G: d随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
7 o+ y- B" F T* T' i要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。2 {! `+ x4 C8 @! r8 b& u
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在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。7 M4 u" D& q# Z; T
( e- {# h: P" `; |- Q/ p; ~6 J9 D有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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5 ?5 g0 H6 y( o" u' p简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。0 M0 F1 ]( g. j0 ^- z9 B& M
2 R4 b" H6 o" y8 c% Z三年后，形势发生了逆转。: y- ~2 y$ y1 y" |0 X
8 ^: J0 r) a, [: ~# \$ |这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。9 x/ \5 g: h/ V" A/ z8 m
& e3 O, d! c8 g2 e, w+ o+ a发生了什么变化？机构资本.. h Q1 Y9 r& y- j$ j5 K( G. u
0 E2 D7 @, U" B9 |! x& u大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。; w4 a w. A# p, R: o5 l7 ^
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零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。- N4 e4 H% h/ K: w4 h$ j0 ~3 ?" k( ~
( Q) a# k" Z! x/ m, y% Q3 v山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上! h5 r' t2 g6 r8 C$ w
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。$ B- Y- }( A, g
5 q/ h- r$ F6 l; ~3 L: a2 v这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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( c% ^9 _" \0 f: `. eXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。" p' z4 C, i& I* I; Y; x1 m
: W. r& C( l5 o' A, j- g" S尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。) `. {6 {( o! d4 j# k. b
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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