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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎0 h2 F0 B2 e) |7 s; @0 w' o
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？0 s. R6 I- U- Q
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。" J* S( v6 p( m) D
0 H6 T+ A4 j/ r0 T0 [ m* O F8 _然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。* x; G. O7 U2 O
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币? u1 b3 m e8 m2 \
& ^: i f5 h- f" ]. h5 {2 V" ^随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌& p# _: w+ E: x: a" F3 o
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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3 ?$ a* O* g1 B( z4 [在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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7 M1 A* m D; O s! k6 F有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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# q; R$ N% b2 ]7 I' i简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。/ a9 o; E3 q4 c
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三年后，形势发生了逆转。; E9 X3 Q+ N$ c4 _- D
/ {+ w/ S& T2 t! t: K这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。) E4 K' q2 L# B C. |
@" N4 ?3 F3 ~9 b; B9 C# r发生了什么变化？机构资本.6 [$ n( z9 ]& E1 F
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。5 m9 Z! V& G u: t7 |
/ y: C' S, w. @4 t零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。3 i/ S# r8 s8 @* E
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因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。3 ~/ n' r) Z6 ^/ q6 V8 x6 k( A. U
9 A( A2 n' @/ E4 P! D$ }; p0 }山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上# y) _4 E B; @8 \
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。
4 `7 X8 f% H( Q0 x1 m0 Q$ _
7 H( t; d" J' C6 w1 E& b5 }2 f# s这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。* p; n: T8 N; s0 X6 e
; B8 {+ i+ Y( x' ZXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。
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% }8 [' q q k! m, I$ C在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。( `2 o' Q6 K) a; K! L- t
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