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[lastpost] => 2796632 今日虚拟币市场是一个普跌了 1768272636 22301
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。5 j6 [$ g/ n+ g/ r7 j2 s
5 ~- ^* n9 `& w; B" t瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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" h4 V0 d- O/ q/ E( A$ g% r3 T衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”3 L. i4 v; `+ [% ?, h! O5 B6 s
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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9 L( L' s' a( U5 q- w融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。# W& }5 O: P/ T3 X {5 m' }
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益3 v: K& T/ d# e2 L* D
. T1 i3 h' i. h7 L率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。) T* ?; v) x/ I. u: j! B7 r
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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! `+ ^+ h: h d- y/ n长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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! p/ H/ Y3 v4 X- q1 L是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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9 q' u7 E$ b1 q1 [+ t: T' \( c: i1 c历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币1 R$ A( t4 ^$ `
7 j* w1 J3 q4 W. f% |+ \( n) w特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史6 I& d/ s2 k0 f6 _$ e# [2 [
1 H3 M% T9 U" e3 ]标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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( G% Y5 C: Q% t' ?9 ^$ Q; Y周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。) l5 @ i2 S; l5 b! s& S$ C
8 C5 Y9 p3 {, A9 I+ D周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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4 k9 ^, U* M9 G" x0 @收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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" F- M Q" G' c5 u# T# T' \6 ^周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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4 o# C! X) M* N6 }# CLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"% w# U/ U- p+ n' X* F" f
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去8 l& R# v& ^4 y. d" F& E+ m* Y# }
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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/ K+ H6 T- }5 x6 r0 ORenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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