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[lastpost] => 2769327 Pi币价格预测：价格自历史高点暴跌91%——但神秘巨鲸为何仍在买入？-转 1758962429 rainwang
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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。; N" V/ F- ]* m% E( a
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28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。5 Y; E. u) k7 M/ F' T) v7 B+ k
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此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：. M# v* M3 k+ r9 P2 b! {+ f+ h; H# I# A
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"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"
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Y% T' r5 y/ C! h"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折
: u+ m; B1 |$ R2 X据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。
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贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。0 _" ^; a: V) B! ?6 b
$ R& x+ p5 G b, w8 i比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：
5 I' [! _9 w- _9 E
& K8 a6 H9 K& M1 T"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"9 y: z! J* w8 ] S. d5 Q7 z/ ^* Q
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他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。
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市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资
, a7 @6 f" X/ @0 ~( _$ v& q投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：* |$ [5 D- ?; x% i! m8 S0 b' L
2 {7 D6 `5 G9 e* u$ s, c. k$ p' a"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。"5 Q6 `4 B# {. r B
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负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。# Y6 c% N. W% U4 h) f; P
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尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。2 _2 x# A- c( D4 i
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特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。
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根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：
$ p! U0 ?. P: Q& K
. b6 a% w @2 m5 x6 \# d m6 Z7 s$ P"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"& n" ~! \. k* P5 w
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