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[lastpost] => 2809204 比特币做市商如何将一次例行调整演变成向 6 万美元的暴跌（转） 1772027459 小钱儿
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当前离线
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BTC上涨至7万美元，扭转了网络基本面 ；
8 D! E7 t, i% U* a0 @尽管存在短期调整和可能的盘整，但这是一个看涨信号吗 ；
; _: W- z" \- ?/ Q比特币[BTC]网络基础知识转变积极的10月，分析师首次认为这是该资产中期的积极信号 ；5 H" e0 k; {9 k% q- c1 j% r; H
/ w! F! q1 y5 @/ W根据CryptoQuant的数据积极的在牛市期间，网络指标是一个熟悉的趋势，尽管可能会出现调整或整合，但这表明该资产可能会出现积极的结果 ；
* i, N1 I5 f; y) y+ [3 ?: n9 [: z8 V
7 T2 o6 o) E7 Z' g在最近上涨至7万美元后，30天内活跃BTC地址的平均数量飙升至100万大关。它达到了6月份的最后一个水平，表明在上周的抛售中，人们对该资产表现出了极大的兴趣 ；
4 W- D# m. C5 ]5 b$ _ h1 } M( @1 u9 ~; Z1 B* g
下一步BTC上涨？
% ?! _) L; i$ @. x' {* z( Q& C3 I采矿部门和网络费用也出现了类似的积极趋势。值得注意的是开采难度创下历史新高，表明BTC矿工之间对奖励的激烈竞争，这是BTC内在价值的积极催化剂 ；; D- S" ^7 x, o3 |
( P2 M: b: E6 P+ l4 S9 y
此外，截至发稿时，BTC的表观需求或生产和库存计划之间的差异飙升至25.6万BTC的6个月高点。在大多数情况下，需求的飙升总是伴随着BTC价格的上涨 ；
% F9 c1 e2 s1 `/ J7 w, R) v$ g1 T2 l9 S! J {1 R [; l* n2 q
尽管有上述积极的催化剂，但随着美国大选的临近，分析师对BTC价格的预测喜忧参半。) d! [7 [7 `6 u
! a" u. }- U6 ]* DBlockworks分析师Felix Jauvin警告在选举结束之前，BTC可能会受到区间限制 ；/ [ m @3 m, Z
, P% w" |, }/ \" J1 U5 ]. k% v* H5 ^4 Q
“在选举临近之际，没有人想成为这里风险的边际买家。在选举结束之前，可能只是一大笔钱……：9 O- G- q5 p& Q) n7 [' u H
& I, K/ a% `8 _% P: V" L6 s另一位专家，贾斯汀·比尔内特，呼应了他的谨慎情绪，理由是鲸鱼对抓住最近周中的下跌缺乏兴趣 ；) [7 K- H& w+ C4 F! {8 g; G
: p# X. P' [0 {自10月17日以来，追踪鲸鱼相对于散户的定位的Whale vs.Retail Delta有所下降，这表明鲸鱼减少了BTC的敞口 ；
8 F9 S5 Q3 c$ u0 |- y
2 {& }: N" @/ o4 M- ? l有趣的是，期权交易员仍然看涨，这可以从他们在选举日前增加购买看涨期权（押注BTC价格会上涨）中看出。7 T( }" q1 s* o) f" F
6 z' t" r+ @+ P# x在10月22日的每日更新中，交易公司QCP Capital注意,
/ j; p, p v3 l. Q8 K& w9 h+ M& m; ^- N1 p( L3 c
“短期隐含波动率在选举日到期时达到峰值，与前一个到期日相差10个交易量，并且倾向于看涨期权而非看跌期权，尽管BTC比其历史高点低约8%”；! r- d( n, M* J- |( Z* I) q" O, c# o
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