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[lastpost] => 2798799 期权数据显示，比特币到6月底有30%的概率跌破8万美元。（转） 1768904367 小作文
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国盛证券今日发文分析称，参考黄金ETF推出对金价的推动，3 r- m0 {1 l! L8 ?/ M
7 O# I2 G. G4 n# @% J1 m9 T
比特币现货ETF值得期待。黄金ETF的推出对金价产生积极推动，
+ [8 v9 g' `+ n8 D3 E3 u0 f
$ P/ {4 Z& E; R3 _这对比特币现货ETF有着积极的启示。需要注意的是，世界对黄% E2 N- m: v* T9 K0 k
" A, v+ S3 [6 Q( q/ J金的认可并非由现货ETF而产生，而若比特币现货ETF获批，则意
3 ?0 ]$ {" ^9 A M( n: q
3 u) i, b* G7 r+ K& ]味着庞大的传统财富世界对比特币、甚至Web3.0世界的认可，将
. ?& S. c% g6 g& z- V
5 ], \& @* J# }进一步加速两者的融合。这是一个从0到1的过程，边际变化远超# F- |3 V0 y3 E* Z+ O$ X: T, b
2 Q* t8 D7 y* _! i* Y0 w* L0 f是黄金ETF获批。
1 @( K9 C) N) Q
; `- j+ E+ k3 U2 `8 m. j1 ]- W当然，另一层面不同的是，比特币总数固定在2100万枚，而黄金0 j& L! H7 v, {. j
( ^# q/ z9 w* H& d+ G
仍然有不断的新增产出。比特币现货ETF在美获批，有望带来增量
1 M6 F( W- g7 c! t* N$ U7 |$ @, x8 k: {+ H
资金。Galaxy Digital测算得到的结论是：比特币在现货ETF获批的5 R/ p9 b* [4 \ u
5 A `: E! t0 B0 k& T) a; b8 |4 W第一年内预计上涨74%（以2023年9月30日比特币价格26920美元 h; h$ F0 {# ]" i
* [1 P! A& w. t' a5 I0 d( h$ L: ~为起点）；在较长时间内，投资比特币产品的潜在资金规模为1250亿! I( N U7 t x
9 s. n2 i9 a. u# y* @. Q6 E) _美元至4500亿美元之间。
( _1 h$ |4 r& X2 G5 y5 _! _
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6 x1 G2 p" L1 H% E! q5 p/ f: _, n |
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