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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
2 }5 v; |) R6 s9 U" I$ N委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自
) {$ P6 Z, b: d* Z# VBlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。' i' `5 a/ Z1 V0 ?; v
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
6 e/ q8 ~. u2 O+ B批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
9 G' T. j* ^# K5 j9 U3 I- H, c后240天做出裁决。: w1 L. ~/ }! e1 I
分析师：预料之内会被推迟
. J" ~3 u1 z0 W a彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也
6 B5 g1 `. Z' M1 w0 P7 R变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方5 K6 V# ]" U8 e
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行8 C1 ]8 I& g: H0 C
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
( @+ F8 x& j& O% f2 S5 d来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
5 x0 H3 l/ Z! j P* ~4 U @. Y讶。 F# Y" ~8 x8 b' f1 @- |- e/ m! g
事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争5 s2 L% G6 \6 l7 g9 k9 C ~% z0 q
环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成8 \3 z; n g2 L# r+ [
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
2 Q k. B! G2 m5 S4 i7 w) i( h+ y/ V三大利好消息酝酿1 U u' S, o) U5 W# ~! M: M
市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
4 @2 _! s7 g6 Q4 xGBTC负溢价率缩窄
8 Q4 {" H$ n4 i5 y+ d8 ~最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
5 m. d; Z+ [9 i% n# n续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可
2 e3 \) o: n; r H: s2 h能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。: {! v8 c# |$ c2 u# L
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
! I. _7 E% |- `. a& {值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只: p& P3 }5 a3 q( r# [& P
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。% f n5 b; ^, k
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请' P$ x4 p8 i2 I
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
" w9 i; ^) ^5 t' \5 v+ L( i多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然
9 t! f) j% g! }' S% I3 P知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
! W4 f! ?8 H- j7 g4 c% ?* g( Q2 Y0 c" Y3 i
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