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小分3种情况:4 m5 S. |0 m. L
3 ~, G# q+ x0 x A+ u
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
/ R; T( v' H! V3 ~- ~ y% F1 {1 V9 E& N
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。1 c! {; s0 [/ H$ `
) `- v6 H& U: h+ p4 G8 {5 i3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
: x2 C1 j# T4 q+ Q$ {( C9 F4 V: f0 x3 ]" C, u' ~6 \- f
2张牌8或9点的情况有:, ?/ n1 q4 z" u; t7 T/ [' B% D
) {! n* g" J' \7 D2 w9 R( @
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
0 a* `5 @8 G% p( ~ [2 I1 I) I5 Z. Q' q1 y& p1 ^0 C5 ]7 M9 A
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4151 V' Y. }# \" u! n
$ t; q9 F: v2 W* \8 E# m
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4158 {7 s$ g) ^; X. Y) Z2 u
2 H7 @) _. M0 ~& D
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 P$ `) z! l2 p0 z) m
* R6 |) z a( i) D5 f* _' H8 m" i5 p
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。& q0 i; S6 Y* g5 v! V0 B* B
* Q X& i1 t# Z" T, d- X" X
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
2 l8 I0 T l9 ? k/ Y6 a. O8 s/ [. Q
" P j% ]1 r7 ^' M+ P% r那么我们可以得出- Y, r+ Q. H/ q5 Q, Z
2 e3 q" N3 C6 k! P% R% u4 {1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
: h; j0 e; n' w" N" q3 ?( Z K+ @% H: H
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 / V, F. y" i% h Q* n
* i9 m' L+ `/ ?3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854915 D0 X% q" m3 t6 c, d& b
& }4 F- I% l4 `5 ?) `所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693237 A9 o6 R* f C
+ P7 S. _. ?8 |5 X: M* |: E7 Y
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677* r" i, I' T4 Z2 K- I
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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