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小分3种情况:
~/ O) W5 Y! L( w2 j$ o6 h* b/ L; j5 s" t, \
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
' T# J5 B4 A0 ]! D- C: U7 p
% B$ \0 m# J7 L" Q3 ^2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
$ E4 U, B! i4 z* A0 D4 Q% K6 T
v* x, P$ j/ V) U' t3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
6 }9 r' Z7 K! o4 B# L: q' a
# H2 Y: X" E' X2张牌8或9点的情况有:/ _* O w' g# z, l
4 e5 w7 {+ T% G ]) _6 D1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10; A9 I, I y7 ^2 C( O7 S
* A' l. w* i/ O7 r: [
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
; Z q g# L" t0 J$ V7 i, u! D5 Y4 ]* K4 f: B) O
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
2 g$ x* s8 z8 y5 O; f3 a/ t! T: M& b3 c) p1 g$ K: v
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
2 Y, Z2 c' P' s' ^9 o: i
6 G) f: W5 W, ?2 \* O3 ~由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
7 S j+ } Y0 ] d' O% I5 W& T8 i0 W2 Z
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。& j+ n. G" p1 N. @$ k; X4 G1 D
7 t% n( z& Y9 W* `' z j" p" S
那么我们可以得出4 Z5 j! D' B' Y0 A7 `, E* h- ?
& ^* U2 ]; u9 ^8 z; z# Z3 a1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
6 u. B" j. m+ m% D) O8 k7 t
' L. O8 z) c4 _* a' O7 d3 l" `8 I+ k5 Q2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
]9 T H' @0 \. U' L
$ Q( p$ L; \" p2 B7 i- q, v0 |: Q" t3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
% j0 B, T# @1 z
: @. X4 S, s# [! p所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323) |1 H& b ?$ v I
( }- ]9 }$ M, Y4 F. t百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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