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以太坊合并驱使的市场反弹会持续吗？还是一个牛市陷阱？
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随着备受期待的 Merge 临近，以太坊的表现优于更广泛的加密货币市场，但总体情况仍然看跌。
以太坊 ( ETH ) 在过去 7 天里上涨了 48%，超过了它的老大哥比特币，而比特币在同一时期仅达到了 19%。它也从 6 月 19 日的市场周期底部 918 美元上涨了 66%，达到目前的 1549 美元。
然而，随着宏观经济阴云密布，当前的以太坊反弹可能是一个牛市陷阱。牛市陷阱是一个信号，表明加密资产的下降趋势已经逆转，并且在实际继续下降时正在上升。
该资产近期势头的主要驱动力与有关其最终转向股权证明的公告有关，该公告定于 9 月 19 日举行。
合并将使网络的能源消耗减少 99% 以上。但是，它不一定会显着降低交易费用，因为这将在明年某个时候通过分片进行扩展时发生。
7 月 19 日，Coinbase关于合并的报告解释说，下一个重要步骤，也是最后一次彩排，是计划于 8 月 11 日进行的 Goerli 测试网合并。
Goerli 是最久经考验的以太坊环境，拥有最多的用户活动和最接近真实事物的模拟。
虽然重大升级是当前以太坊市场情绪的基本驱动力，但该资产仍较 2021 年 11 月的历史高点下跌 68%。
也有人担心，在合并及其从质押智能合约中释放后，大量的 ETH 可能会涌入市场。
然而，21Shares 的研究主管 Eliézer Ndinga 告诉 Cointelegraph，这不太可能发生：
“在上海升级后的合并后 6-12 个月内，以太坊的提现不会发生。提款将限制为每个 epoch 或约 6 分钟的六个验证者，以避免银行挤兑并保持网络安全。”
Finder最近在最近一次反弹之前进行的一项调查显示，对于短期以太坊价格，仍有很多负面情绪。
接受调查的 54 位行业专家小组认为，到 2022 年底，ETH 的价值将达到 1,711 美元，到 2025 年攀升至 5,739 美元，然后到 2030 年达到 14,412 美元。然而，他们也认为它会在年底前跌至 675 美元。
Finder表示，有几个宏观经济因素可能导致这种回落。预计美联储将在 7 月 26 日至 27 日的会议上再次加息 75 个基点，这通常对加密市场不利。如果比特币跳水，以太坊肯定会紧随其后。
此外，美国经济分析局 (BEA) 将于 7 月 28 日发布其对第二季度 GDP 增长的预先估计。另一个预期的负季度将意味着该国处于技术性衰退中，这对经济也非常不利以太坊等风险资产。 来源：金色财经 |
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