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例如: 08-09赛季欧冠 切尔西4-4利物浦
8 c" l* r) D5 j0 l$ b1 J3 l2 H 主队 胜 平 负 返还率 客队; E, t8 @/ o& c7 }! _& ^, K
切尔西 2.20 3.15 2.98 90% 利物浦
7 Z0 _' |0 y' O2 R5 C0 { 41.05% 28.66% 30.03%
* l3 h' d- D% ^4 S1 z2 }- f 上面这组数据是欧冠联赛中切尔西主场对阵利物浦时,欧洲的立博公司开出的赔率。若看好主队切尔西胜下注100元,如果切尔西胜出就赢得利润120元;下注平局或是利物浦胜,则利润分别为215元和198元。(注:赔率已包含有投注的本金, 所以计算利润的时候要除去本金的数目)
! P' V/ ]0 c3 K" T 我们看到在赔率下面出现一组百分比数据,这些数据代表什么?它们与赔率关系是什么?而上面的赔率又是怎么开出来的那?这组赔率数据的含义又是什么?+ M' F6 A$ Q- M% [0 b
带着这些疑问,我们先从概率的起源说起。赔率下边的一组百分比数据就是我们所说的概率,它们是博彩公司根据对阵双方的基本信息
/ o8 {6 |/ @ z 进行分析后,对胜平负三种结果做出的概率估算。这些信息都是公开的,而这些概率经过转化就成了胜平负三种结果的赔率值。那么,它们又是如何转化的呢?
8 P; X1 i7 T& d3 R2 D8 E4 W. y! @ 笔者以前曾拜读过一些博彩前辈所论述的赔率转化理论,综合参考后个人觉得最合理的模式如下。' e+ k1 v8 G1 l; R$ r5 T
概率与赔率的转化公式:A÷B=C,C-C×10%=D
2 B8 F0 W9 P/ f8 R2 [ A就是计算百分比概率的基数100;' G' ^9 @) i5 ?+ s
B就是博彩公司分析得出的百分比概率;% y+ b9 `5 u' d, A! n6 j2 g
C就是A÷B得出的结果;8 w+ Q/ q Y, K! ^' J) Q2 T$ l
D就是最后计算出来的赔率;
9 B* Y7 Z2 R F! @ 依据这个公式再结合上面的案例来分析。博彩公司分析的切尔西胜率为41%,套用公式计算如下:, _* X" D$ W+ ^* X, n2 Z
步骤一:100÷41%=2.43
/ e( `; ^: \! D: {& q 步骤二:2.43-2.43×10%=2.19
$ w% ]' k6 K% y& e) n7 D3 K 再看,假设博彩公司分析的利物浦取胜的概率是30%,继续推算如下:( V7 A( L! m2 i% y% g
步骤一:100÷30=3.33
& B9 }5 S" o/ c- L- [ 步骤二:3.33-3.33×10%=3.005 M P) A! z- Z; d- Q% r t( s
以此类推,博彩公司分析的双方打平的概率为28.66%,再次推算如下:2 C1 F: Q/ ^* x* I } J" l0 m
步骤一:100÷28.66=3.49
, G4 G/ q- g4 l+ r( Q1 A 步骤二:3.49-3.49×10%=3.14! j6 o8 {( p" ~6 G) D
根据计算结果,本场比赛的欧洲赔率是2.19-3.14-3.00,计算结果与博彩公司的实际赔率基本吻合。在公式中的10%则代表了博彩公司的抽水佣金即“水钱”,每家博彩公司开出的赔率并不会完全相同,而且抽水标准也不同。虽然他们分析概率时所运用元素的来源是一致的,但是根据各自公司的实际情况经过换算后所反映出来的数据并不会完全一致。再一种简化的方法是直接用每家公司的返还率计算,如上例中的返还率为90%,则计算如下:! Z" F1 \8 x! Z
主胜:90%÷41%=2.198 W6 q* E5 s$ k q$ n% U' s
平局:90%÷28.66%=3.14" Z* m, Q& I W# {
主负:90%÷30%=3.00+ |2 {( ^0 p. [/ P
用这个简化程序计算的结果与上一种公式相同,而计算起来也相对简单的多。但是要注意的是,各家公司的返还率都不同,在计算时应按照参考公司的实际返还率进行。
3 t- {; p1 H% K- X$ t 通过这些实际演算,我们就不难掌握概率与赔率的关系及含义。而通过这些数据换算的熟练使用,在实战中就可以根据赔率来估算概率,反之根据概率也可以估算赔率,这一点对看盘是很有意义的。
5 E, J) k G" m2 g$ @ 一些博彩研究人士总结出了一套概率与赔率的对应换算关系,现借花献佛演示如下:
1 M' l# |' w& M9 s0 F, v% E; [, A 欧盘与胜平负百分比概率的换算 :& Z# B5 H. Q |) e- T
1.10=81% 1.12=80% 1.14=79% 1.15=78% 1.16=77% 1.17=76% 1.20=74-75%
% w. p. i/ h. H 1.22=73% 1.25=71-72% 1.28=70% 1.30=69% 1.33=67-68% 1.36=65-66%
# B. f- t# z6 I/ I& Y 1.40=63-64% 1.45=61-62% 1.5=60% 1.53=59% 1.55=58% 1.57=57% 1.60=56%
% D0 U0 N) v* G9 o: v 1.62=55% 1.65=54% 1.70=53% 1.72=52% 1.75=51% 1.80=50% 1.85=48-49%
9 b6 M) E+ U8 T& S 1.90=46-47% 2.00=44-45% 2.10=42-43 2.20=41% 2.25=40% 2.30=39% 2.35=38%# h# v4 w" N3 W# |/ |
2.40=37% 2.50=36% 2.60=35% 2.65=34% 2.70=33% 2.80=32% 2.90=30-31%9 ^1 Q9 O6 p9 s. j
3.00=29% 3.20=28% 3.30=27% 3.40=26% 3.60=25% 3.70=24% 3.90=23%
/ c8 D6 X: F* _- c 4.00=22% 4.20=21% 4.50=22% 4.70=19% 5.00=18% 5.30=17% 5.50=16%
3 o. G. V7 P* ^7 N, u5 W5 { 6.00=15% 6.50=14% 7.00=13% 7.50=12% 8.00=11% 9.00=10% 10.00=9%2 _' o' D4 z# |9 q3 }" T
11.00=8% 12.00=7% 15.00=6% 18.00=5% 23.00=4% 30.00=3% |
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