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[lastpost] => 2760047 今天虚拟币市场是大回调啦 1756179376 22301
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。, j3 d3 |& k: Y9 A h0 ~. y
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。1 C# _/ ^* ] d4 p4 f' X) U( A
8 K# z! Y. ?2 e! Q; ]8 h然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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* q: q- ~7 p6 R2 G3 L/ A! d7 K宏观信号依然支持
5 S7 e! t' c0 c1 \8 F" A美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。; r& v* B7 u* {# P4 w" c
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。3 |& s- B+ s/ N9 Q5 Y
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从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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" b' n0 R: d$ A9 I4 O市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.$ S) X% _) h- j0 E
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。- X' p, c$ i7 g3 ~
( S- m! Q8 k9 h9 I' e1 z6 w3 S著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。, o/ ~7 n. r7 W) p0 }; ~, ]
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他补充道，# `4 O5 B* d) _3 G9 i( @4 |. U
1 I4 H0 A. E" u“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”, F% o2 e* c: P7 F0 ?' j
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韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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4 A" z2 g6 k) Y+ u8 }$ P6 T他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
4 p9 m: d2 U; c: a$ x0 A' h# z3 u! P: X% m9 b
亚洲比特币市场再度走强
& [& S1 d1 a3 m6 A8 u* q5 R. `7 W& h亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.. j6 H$ a* ?. z, ~: G- d F
+ r" x/ a9 Z0 E6 L G此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。9 C0 L) x+ X" S# U1 u5 x4 ~
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相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
$ y1 Z7 t6 f# Y: e6 o5 T7 Y( J, j! @# d( e, U2 U7 O5 i: r
然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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