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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。3 ~; a$ U e. u* G' Z [
. Z: N9 `3 ~, L* P 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国# l3 n6 w2 H ?' W
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。! w# A5 V. @, O$ L
- \" F3 z* J) r! o 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而( p6 p( s: d) j/ Z
2 ~9 L0 m ~- W& P4 L) _“短期看空”比特币。
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
, Z5 P( s: {/ W7 K% j
3 U* c$ ^6 ?- t9 ^- \8 N* G; n$ u' _实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”7 s# [2 J) c3 @; s
7 b3 ?- Y$ I' t9 G) }: x& G) h
报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。$ [! P( e f2 R x, I5 h& `; a
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，" Y, d( Y0 k t# B4 j% l7 w$ v
) B7 e3 d9 G% j+ A0 `! m0 b j
而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
0 ~, k# a: l9 v: ]
. R, G2 ?7 T& \( q( R" z m BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的( `3 y, ]! M8 t, v! h+ O- I
5 a1 Q9 C# e( e5 I; Z利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”- {% n5 l7 q/ z
+ h1 |4 Z; ]" {: K' n “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，! _2 x/ A- C% _1 I; V9 y1 a. r7 _+ P
: F7 J2 e+ k! d! t% F% b
将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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