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[lastpost] => 2802598 【首发上线】ZAMAUSDT盘前永续合约由盘前交易转为正式合约 1770030010 小作文
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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0 Y5 L3 \+ Y6 P% ]过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。( V( I9 h7 F& `8 y/ @
! e' e7 ]* o( I Q1 e1 HPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。9 i8 Z) s; o1 K! D- `/ ^* T+ V
4 ~3 }5 _* X' C1 `7 `! ACPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。7 F% C# Q2 {( }! m
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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, c7 n0 h1 x& h1 J7 |8 D/ {当前持仓成本:
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( K% G# l0 B. E7 a, J$ @机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
! `& x: ^, R- }* P/ n, K1 b* S% G {& W; K
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;4 |5 d$ }1 Y; c8 Y( M+ C2 L
+ H' K7 Q* w! V! A& wETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。2 f% C( u' l3 D( v- `! B3 Q( g6 I
+ ~, B; p' W1 v& `8 K1 ~; Q
比特币价值回归:% x& c( J, J0 m K- u
4 B$ O# n. h+ ^4 I5 R2 v5 | [市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。) M [$ H, A# a% w6 `
9 Q h/ w9 C9 r3 a6 ?随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。$ W6 _; U6 {2 E* m5 H7 t& e. K
7 K4 @) W1 |2 v/ ]4 c
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
, s1 B6 ]5 Z4 p3 V1 u/ l; ?
4 g, U1 l9 t. [& k7 j7 z, ?3. 市场热点与反弹情况
$ `7 ]2 b8 S$ V4 A$ a. w! K
, i8 {: r" M2 d" p" C0 C; GETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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6 K; t( u4 }$ m ^0 f机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。" X4 l- v/ i# g8 {
2 m0 p# r2 N1 d8 d M8 m' x/ \
BTC:
- r9 D: g& B7 c' J. a
+ B: M9 O: O% W8 g, `# P B2 E; \尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
4 [* g! _4 }. x+ J, K- i- |6 \4 |* |8 p' p1 b
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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" Y& v4 v) s# g3 [' [0 X' FSOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
& u' ^8 e& M6 B5 ]4 T) y0 S) A0 y& O8 Q7 B [4 ~/ z
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。: ]- r) D/ ^& p5 P4 h) N" O
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其他热点项目:+ r. i# ?& A |7 S- a/ D
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。3 M% _: v0 Y% N: N2 L( K+ @
" p" D7 J/ U% ?4 i- ^4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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, C7 u- P$ M: R% S" vAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。0 [0 x' p! B% i% F: c5 z
6 ?5 i( G/ p5 A. t4 x! v
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
* X- T z2 P/ p% Y* H
3 G. H3 d8 g1 a/ L" ]# P9 o2 \新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
5 y& w c& h& P" w0 b' s
+ p& e! B; W/ C( ?市场展望
9 f/ t+ ~4 h$ s" a/ u
1 M; Y# }# a b! p$ P0 F/ G随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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