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[lastpost] => 2801729 美伊紧张局势、ZF停摆、冬季危机：比特币即将遭遇暴跌（转） 1769739295 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再度失守3万大关！美国就业远超预期刺激Fed加息（转载）
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虽然近期加密货币市场有所回暖，但美国整体经济指标却似乎仍未有放松货币紧缩政策的征兆。联准会主席鲍威尔也在六月底刚举办的欧洲中央银行论坛上，再次表明「坚守货币紧缩政策」的立场。
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2 j8 G2 B0 b) w: h4 N6 A( Z而昨(6)日晚间，联准会官员针对6月的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要作出评论，明显表达出与鲍威尔相似的货币紧缩立场。
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$ _2 R# } i9 _联准会官员：当前经济形势强劲，暗示还有两次升息& c% t) i. G4 w/ _" E( t7 D
% `3 F7 c" s$ ~! [* R# s1 c据路透社报道，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长Lorie Logan在昨(6)晚举办的纽约中央银行研究协会年会上强调，当前经济依然很强势，需要进一步的升息来降温：FOMC必须贯彻我们6月发出的信号。(当时)三分之二的参会人员预计至少还有两次升息。; f' T! p9 P+ B+ R7 F+ S
5 C: ?. q/ a: O, u而采取升息则是出于对通膨下降不明显的忧虑，且当前的劳动力市场等指标放缓速度不达预期：我仍然非常担心通膨率是否会以可持续的方式及时回到目标值。通膨持续高于目标值、强于预期的劳动力市场使得我们必须采取更严格的货币政策。
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市场预计缩表结束时间过于乐观
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# g# X# j6 q$ F. M关于货币紧缩政策，Logan也分享了联准会缩表计划的观点。首先，她认为市场预计的缩表结束时间过于乐观，比她预计的时间还要早。并且，即使在通胀指标降低后，联准会依旧有可能继续抛售所持债券：这将是维持货币政策相对于经济表现立场的举措，而不是为了降低通胀率的刺激性政策。
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同时，Logan也表示联准会资产负债表的相关因素目前没有影响到对利率的决策，并且由于逆回购措施，财政部的帐户也不太可能影响到银行准备金。' s+ k' g) s3 m1 ?9 _
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美国就业数据超预期
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: b5 Q0 B5 i& \5 h/ @' f* q另一方面，美国昨(6)晚公布的6月份ADP新增就业人数增加49.7万人，比市场预期的22.8万人多了近一倍，创下自去年2月以来的最高水平，表示着就业市场依然强劲。
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受消息影响资产市场各类指数急跌，比特币也从今日高点31,500美元急挫，并跌破30,000美元。
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; i- a% i; ]: F1 }( b比特币再跌破三万美元, M( B- f: Z- y* E9 a/ x$ m# e
, ^- F3 m5 q( ]5 A0 p" h: F! \Fed官员鹰派的立场、加上强劲的经济数据，加强了进一步升息的可能性，也让美股和加密货币市场进一步下跌。
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* h0 L$ m( P1 f" Q比特币在昨(7)日来到31,500美元，创下今年最高价位之后随即快速下滑，今晨八点左右最低更一度来到29,701美元，再度失守3万美元大关，近24小时下挫1.79%。
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市场认为7月会议将升息1码为92.4%
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" }, Y }+ q# b! J: _8 A另一方面，据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据显示，截稿前市场认为7月会议将再升息1码的概率已升至92.4%，而保持不变的概率仅7.6%。4 t, e! a5 r2 v, B9 l- ~7 r$ O4 A
/ [" N: O: L- E: A$ N. W6 J" t F目前，7月利率决策公布的具体时间为本月27日的凌晨2:00(北京时间)。% h: h ?" l) q$ ?' a5 D
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