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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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: g' `8 w; b% h刚刚认真计算了一次;
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% g7 }. \  A; A; A2 u1 R假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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! n/ B4 I' Q& k8 U6 Y8 o开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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* r& W( Y! d2 D* |! S: B! _$ n开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/728 A, Q: m5 i* \( @$ u0 v

3 I+ H0 Q' s8 x/ c4 O. j/ j收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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9 [9 O& `5 z# R/ b所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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4 n( c* h" w" [5 x加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;2 F. d% S, r7 D  ^
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以上,76gor6 X3 B: M, O/ Z8 k
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;! }. _- k. L3 m# z

9 K  ^) e3 {1 `9 }! s" G8 v: K假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
$ n2 I, E8 ], W# {每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,1528 B0 T; C! S' I5 b

6 p# ~, k. O" K3 N1 {4 k( g' ]假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500) c6 t9 Q# j  w2 V8 [

: |/ Y( [+ ?6 n每天净收入为:¥652! z0 O1 h: D) f; O, Z' f

  h7 L% @5 m! }- K7 l年收入为:¥237,980
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  y/ U6 d) U2 w唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
. Y3 e$ U( Y9 h8 Q- r7 J2 N唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 6 N9 L$ y" K: y# |  j

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3 E  ~4 W/ l9 z, J- c+ c3 p   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?/ E1 W6 o* E. H
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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* ~8 w, A# ^9 }3 r2 L    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
4 a, b1 K* {3 Y; Q9 F9 obeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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& m+ ^: @# u! k% ~6 d    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
4 ?' x7 C$ j4 [) f3 A9 ?9 L9 \  I0 J: Q6 q! B3 K
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
% e. f/ l$ J9 m2 p
" M" W7 A# q! F开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
4 U8 ~" b0 T( m% B. [( |3 s- w76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏& k( e& ^4 D/ a+ u% c
大概是1%多点* P8 f1 ^' j; L
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏! e" v4 t8 \3 F  ~
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
1 @  Y9 c0 J$ D! ~9 I1 `taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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6 w; m8 P. _6 c, [4 u$ b    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?" E+ V1 h! Y  w  t" [- G7 g
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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: Y1 p+ s. E, @: b  d' S  P7 J    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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5 U0 ~% i0 x: M5 w6 Z   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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17#
回复  76gor . Q9 u+ y$ [! y% _( E$ B8 u

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1 M' I& m$ C5 I0 c7 t/ p3 \/ S, Z4 U   有个风险就是豹子吧!$ y9 j: k8 W7 _/ p
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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4 A' z6 I6 `5 C+ y5 z" X2 u6 n$ |! N9 F# Z& x
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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