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网点即开票理论探讨：浅析刮刮乐的发展
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近几年，网点即开型福利彩票（以下简称刮刮乐）在全国得到迅速发展，2011年全国刮刮乐销量首次突破200亿元，成为天朝福利彩票一个强有力的增长点，刮刮乐与中福在线并肩成为天朝福利彩票票种体系中重要的“两翼”。山东刮刮乐近几年发展也非常迅速，2011年全省刮刮乐销量首次突破20亿元，创造了新的里程碑，为山东福彩2011年销量突破百亿元大关做出了重要贡献。
& \6 g" m5 a7 w" Z1 o- a8 G( r 但是，刮刮乐的发展潜力有多大，它具有怎样的发展规律，如何才能保证它的持续健康发展，这些问题影响着对刮刮乐的总体定位，也是广大刮刮乐发行销售人员所关心的问题。本文通过分析国内外即开票销售数据和近几年全国刮刮乐销售曲线，结合作者本人的见解，做出了判断，提出了基本的发展思路。+ _$ e2 I) O$ T
[b]一、 刮刮乐的发展潜力有多大[/b]+ W: v8 s5 x' J4 S, n% O
在探讨这个问题前，首先对即开票自身的特点进行分析：
: a6 \6 ]( \" s: z1 m1 ?+ \" x 第一，即开票存在先天缺陷。首先，从即开票本身来说，它在设计、印制、物流配送以及兑奖等各个环节都需要大量的人力物力，销售成本非常高，这是一种相对落后的生产方式；其次，从彩票属性来说，即开票属于被动型彩票，它不像电脑票那样，彩民可以自由选择号码，即开票彩民只能被动接受已经印制好的成品彩票，这种“纯粹碰运气”式的投注方式会在一定程度上影响彩民投注的积极性。即开票的这种先天缺陷导致的后果是：当电脑票一面世，其市场主导地位便被迅速取代。8 ^+ S6 F% Z. _5 ^# c
第二，即开票具有鲜明特点。即开票虽然存在先天不足，但并非可有可无，它自身具有的鲜明特点使其具备生存的土壤。首先，即开票作为一类票种，有区别于电脑票的特点，比如彩票本身的游戏性，即买即刮的体验性都是很鲜明的，这使它具有特定的彩民群体；其次，被动型彩票本身虽然限制了彩民自由选号的能动性，但这种成品彩票的销售又使它具有灵活销售的特点，既不受时间、地点限制，也无需等待开奖，销售方式更加灵活，渠道空间更加宽广；再次，在彩票品种上，即开票品种设计更加灵活，由于玩法丰富、题材众多，可以随心设计出丰富多样的彩票品种，从而满足不同彩民群体的需求。这些鲜明的特点使即开票具备了生存的土壤，也决定了它的市场地位。' ~' w% T$ \/ [& o1 f, n9 Z
刮刮乐在本质上属于即开票，通过分析即开票自身的特点，可以对刮刮乐有一个基本的认识，对它在彩票体系中的位置也有一个大约的预见。下面结合国内外彩票销售的相关数据具体分析即开票的发展潜力 |
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