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[lastpost] => 2801490 昨日美国 Solana 现货 ETF 净流入 670 万美元，总净流入已达 8.84 亿美元 1769669226 比推快讯
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今晚美股开盘或将继续承压？降息放缓预期引爆贵金属保证金危机，分析师警示市场陷入抛售流动性螺旋
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比推消息，近期贵金属价格持续剧烈波动，回吐了 2026 年最强劲的涨幅，导致股市或面临巨大的抛售压力（日韩股市已在亚洲时间承压）。周一，黄金价格一度下跌 10%，而白银（SI=F）下跌超过 15%。截至发稿时，两者的跌幅均有所收窄，市场的普遍下跌行情，让投资者开始担心美股开盘后将继续承压，而 ETF 的抛售将导致加密市场进一步下挫。
马来亚银行证券的 Tareck Horchani 表示，特朗普对美联储主席的提名已引发跨资产类别的波动，投资者正在重新评估对货币、大宗商品和股票的持仓布局，尤其是在美元反弹之后。波动加剧的另一个原因是，顶级大宗商品交易所芝加哥商业交易所集团（CME Group）宣布提高贵金属期货的保证金要求。上调措施将于周一收盘后生效，这将提高持仓成本，迫使交易者投入更多资金，并通常会对价格和交易活动产生抑制作用。
CME 公告显示，对于非高风险型合约，黄金保证金将从 6% 提高至 8%，高风险型合约将从 6.6% 提高至 8.8%。白银方面，非高风险型合约将从 11% 大幅提高至 15%，高风险型合约将从 12.1% 提高至 16.5%。亚洲市场的避险情绪也拖累了贵金属以及科技相关股票，这些资产此前受益于美元走软，且在亚洲基准指数中占比较大。
盛宝新加坡首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示：凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的消息，正推动市场朝着『降息次数更少/速度更慢』的方向调整。沃什过去一直批评美联储，主张其应仅有一个使命：维持价格稳定。他们表示，他的提名已促使市场参与者放弃美元贬值的叙事，导致黄金、白银和铜价在 1 月份大幅上涨后暴跌。金属价格的回落正在产生多米诺骨牌效应。一旦金属市场转向去杠杆，其溢出效应是典型的：被迫降低风险，并『抛售流动性好的资产以筹集现金』，这也会冲击股市。
新加坡 Tiger Brokers 市场策略师 JAMES OOI 表示：当前股市的抛售部分是由金银价格急跌引发的追缴保证金压力、甲骨文（Oracle）500 亿美元的融资计划以及加密货币市场整体低迷所驱动的。围绕凯文·沃什可能被任命为美联储主席的政策不确定性也给市场情绪带来了压力。尽管他看似支持降息，但他倾向于缩减美联储资产负债表的立场，整体上仍预示着金融环境将趋于紧缩。
首尔未来资产证券分析师 SEO SANG-YOUNG 表示：金银市场波动加剧引发的大宗商品市场冲击，导致机构投资者面临保证金追缴，进而演变为流动性冲击。这进而引发了比特币价格与股市的同步急跌。由于此前国内市场的上涨速度远快于其他市场，因此其下跌幅度也更为剧烈。目前散户投资者虽尚未出现大规模保证金追缴，但市场已陷入恐慌性抛售，因此短期内市场波动性维持在较高水平将不可避免。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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