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[lastpost] => 2774316 比特币面临鲸鱼抛售和宏观经济波动的压力 (转) 1760634273 春娇与小智
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
" e: }+ R o, k/ E, E8 S矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
" I2 W5 x- S' C/ V+ @2 O7 W这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。
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价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。. H/ [5 K. O7 s- e" i6 X9 ~
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风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。3 M: z; o# |6 y' I+ G& @0 J/ d
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从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?
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i; J$ n% Z$ ^+ R+ D4 w) o减半后的挖矿经济2 x/ N/ _" h# f+ ]! [9 w( j
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。3 I; l1 H% ]/ E; A+ E v
* t# f/ n% w/ L问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。
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4 }& x( r6 Z Z/ x. S自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。
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$ G0 D0 {& T2 e; L到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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, U/ X& v2 n8 g% ?为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。8 }- k3 H/ D4 v; L
1 T) z7 ] h; n: k% q换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进1 W7 G" V% R9 [+ M8 N4 ~& w
距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。
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确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。# w2 z0 \( e) {% z( G6 n9 \' s
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但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
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2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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+ I) Z9 Y5 |* W7 t. A4 ]据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。5 S1 H( h) c6 J( B
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话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。+ k$ P3 r; U, T% c# l1 `* W1 v
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从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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7 ]& D" N# c( A+ ]) s/ {2 }这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。
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这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?0 i7 C2 e+ ^" X' [- g
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