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[lastpost] => 2773700 山寨季已不会再来，进化才是唯一出路（转） 1760470474 不傻不成气候
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索（转）
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
" f) T3 j7 I- R矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩，5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
+ W" E" {0 \& U* N& f6 k H) j这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。4 U" b: k, v% C% k+ ?1 V4 n
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价格虽然强劲，但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动，就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅，跌回六位数以下。
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- h0 J- K/ Z$ W" [1 c风险如此之大，谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同，有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格，这为他们带来了巨额利润。2 v3 z0 R; p2 ^/ V3 |5 r
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从历史上看，矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么，在市场观望的同时，我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股？# B' h4 Z b' X6 `8 v( I& G
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减半后的挖矿经济
3 q; z7 s9 k! N4 |8 _2024 年 4 月减半之后，矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC，这给他们带来了沉重打击。9 n2 ?! O6 P7 v: D9 b; G7 M7 S: e# ^
+ i* c- |8 c! g( Q6 Y% q问题是，虽然奖励每四年减半，但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样，但每个区块的收益却只有一半。7 V9 c0 B7 d' f3 B
8 M/ Q! v7 a# Q. T5 c/ q) k自然，这导致平均采矿成本飙升。& e% w, s' s4 ]3 s5 H# C0 Y5 ^
9 M$ m; Q k* Z/ G2 E* g到4月底，比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元，而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环，市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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为什么？因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略：储备枯竭，比特币市场陷入低迷，矿工收入开始减少。3 n/ {5 w, n6 c( L6 C" J2 w
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换句话说，不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率（BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本）进一步受到挤压之前退出，加速全面矿工投降阶段。0 Q- Z8 K$ `. G7 } V: K
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比特币市场陷入困境，矿工竞相前进3 _& T5 a3 C# D3 Y- Y" P
距离第四次减半还有一年，开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右，而比特币市场一直横盘整理，BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。) O4 a" A0 O3 ~5 n {7 h) P
3 t c$ o, Z- s- s确实，比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%，甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。, k! g* A0 I# ^& \) O5 K6 u& ?
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但如果我们继续计分的话，矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。7 c1 g' x1 V, b- w
, S% g; \7 @7 t# Q; ^2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。: N7 G/ t; q, f, X
# g2 D, b6 O5 i( _4 W7 D, X& L据 The Block 报道，矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入，其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。
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话虽如此，早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数（MPI）已回升至零以上，暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。
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. _- @3 n4 n$ F* |1 |从历史上看，大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前，尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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% y) u0 i* G* U2 ^. _这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间，一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。6 h' p" [; w" E! b' d
/ g# a( m3 }/ u% z( ?) ^% Y这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索？这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索？
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