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[lastpost] => 2656011 币安用户达2亿,代币BNB创新高,赵长鹏成“美国最富囚犯”(转) 1718040313 jslinen
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币、以太坊面临23亿美元期权到期——之后会发生什么?(转)
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BTC和ETH的交易低于其最大痛点,这表明交易员可能面临严重损失隐含波动率下降,意味着未来缺乏看涨预期
! S$ l5 {5 p0 Q' H7 t- \价值约23亿美元的比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)期权合同将于5月3日星期五到期。根据Deribit Exchange的数据,比特币期权价值13.5亿美元。另一方面,ETH合约价值9.9亿美元。这些合同的价值似乎低于AMBCrypto上周公布的93亿美元。
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这种下跌可能归因于这两种加密货币的价格走势。在本周的大部分时间里,比特币和以太坊在最近升值之前都出现了严重下跌。因此,交易员们对增仓持谨慎态度。# v$ l6 \0 w" N' [; W; z3 R
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在撰写本文时,比特币的看跌/看涨比率(PCR)为0.50。这个比率衡量了整体市场情绪。PCR高于1表明交易员买入看跌期权多于买入看涨期权——这是看跌情绪的迹象。
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' D. y! C& ] C交易员为业绩做准备,无ZF状态迫在眉睫: b$ e9 m7 T1 u* m6 o: P
然而,如果PCR低于0.70,则意味着看涨多于看跌,这意味着更广泛的情绪是看涨的。简单地说,这一数据表明,交易员预计比特币本周结束时将比开始时更强劲。
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比特币的最大痛点是6.1万美元。这意味着,如果比特币跌至这个价格,大多数期权交易员将遭受巨大损失。3 P |" c0 l9 r3 y9 |* ~( }
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以以太坊为例,其PCR为0.37,这意味着牛市的赌注比熊市的赌注多。ETH的最大痛点是3000美元。因此,交易员可能需要希望altcoin在交易日结束前交易高于该水平。2 v/ I+ `; r3 p3 W
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截至发稿时,比特币和以太坊的估值均低于最大痛点。如果在合同到期时仍然如此,那么对许多交易员来说,这一天可能是“红色的一天”。' c0 P2 _( ?9 n
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BTC和ETH可能在本周结束时看跌,原因有几个。Greeks.live,X上著名的期权交易手柄,解释道,
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“香港ETF上市未能带来太多增量,美国BTC ETF持续流出,市场疲软导致市场信心减弱。当前点位持续横盘的可能性不大,没有反弹势必是下行接力,对市场信心不足的巨鲸。”" c9 G" @+ ?( s# d
波动性下跌:比特币和以太坊会紧随其后吗?) [6 k6 K4 B6 ?. H; G3 A. j
此外,AMBCrypto研究了比特币的隐含波动性(IV)。IV显示了市场的信心水平,以及未来购买看涨/看跌期权是否是个好主意。( n8 k+ R7 j6 a2 [" N
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如果IV上涨,市场参与者不确定下一个价格可能会走向何方。然而,如果指标下降,这意味着交易员不愿意支付额外费用来保护他们的现有头寸。
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/ _* w' K7 b7 J# d+ {0 g5 C考虑到比特币和ETH的价格,IV下跌,这表明交易员一直不确定他们的看涨赌注是否会有回报。! O H8 p/ u: g4 L9 V
如果这种情绪持续下去,ETH的价格可能会再次跌破2900美元。对于BTC来说,它可能会再次以低于59000美元的价格开始交易。
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