×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯,数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 19945
[posts] => 287283
[todayposts] => 279
[yesterdayposts] => 513
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2650958 以太坊预言机LINK、LDO、SSV拉涨布局潜力迎第二波牛市(转) 1716122853 mattf
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币交流]
比特币、以太坊面临23亿美元期权到期——之后会发生什么?(转)
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1061 小时
本月在线: 42 小时
|
|
BTC和ETH的交易低于其最大痛点,这表明交易员可能面临严重损失隐含波动率下降,意味着未来缺乏看涨预期
7 T H8 O% C6 d7 \& ?价值约23亿美元的比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)期权合同将于5月3日星期五到期。根据Deribit Exchange的数据,比特币期权价值13.5亿美元。另一方面,ETH合约价值9.9亿美元。这些合同的价值似乎低于AMBCrypto上周公布的93亿美元。7 y/ v6 G- m* Z! t% U4 T5 _
0 M+ M9 d! K5 b4 J0 d这种下跌可能归因于这两种加密货币的价格走势。在本周的大部分时间里,比特币和以太坊在最近升值之前都出现了严重下跌。因此,交易员们对增仓持谨慎态度。' o" [' I6 M, {8 N. X
6 z, c5 X5 w+ c% V& X, S在撰写本文时,比特币的看跌/看涨比率(PCR)为0.50。这个比率衡量了整体市场情绪。PCR高于1表明交易员买入看跌期权多于买入看涨期权——这是看跌情绪的迹象。
( \) Y }8 q/ j4 j. E! M# ? F6 r7 k" d5 u. Q" p
交易员为业绩做准备,无ZF状态迫在眉睫0 v/ C2 F ]. E$ }
然而,如果PCR低于0.70,则意味着看涨多于看跌,这意味着更广泛的情绪是看涨的。简单地说,这一数据表明,交易员预计比特币本周结束时将比开始时更强劲。" a! V6 t6 L* Q0 `
7 j. D8 x1 b" A" J/ J
比特币的最大痛点是6.1万美元。这意味着,如果比特币跌至这个价格,大多数期权交易员将遭受巨大损失。, w7 E/ S+ z7 b4 T5 i! c
2 w. Z; y! W3 P& I" t( w' V2 `
以以太坊为例,其PCR为0.37,这意味着牛市的赌注比熊市的赌注多。ETH的最大痛点是3000美元。因此,交易员可能需要希望altcoin在交易日结束前交易高于该水平。
# F! F4 N: c t/ Z, f
s7 y) i- m( L" \8 ^6 u截至发稿时,比特币和以太坊的估值均低于最大痛点。如果在合同到期时仍然如此,那么对许多交易员来说,这一天可能是“红色的一天”。
$ W% E9 t$ {9 c! X/ O- J
; ^2 w" R- {! XBTC和ETH可能在本周结束时看跌,原因有几个。Greeks.live,X上著名的期权交易手柄,解释道,# a6 i9 U- C8 l) M) N
# w- Q* R" H# m- O
“香港ETF上市未能带来太多增量,美国BTC ETF持续流出,市场疲软导致市场信心减弱。当前点位持续横盘的可能性不大,没有反弹势必是下行接力,对市场信心不足的巨鲸。”
2 i, p. f4 ^( r/ t! K波动性下跌:比特币和以太坊会紧随其后吗?) M U+ U& ^/ b. `3 H! ]' Z
此外,AMBCrypto研究了比特币的隐含波动性(IV)。IV显示了市场的信心水平,以及未来购买看涨/看跌期权是否是个好主意。
" ^8 {$ ^, M$ t _! G
, M7 R, M* Y5 n$ [如果IV上涨,市场参与者不确定下一个价格可能会走向何方。然而,如果指标下降,这意味着交易员不愿意支付额外费用来保护他们的现有头寸。/ h& T% c' H# |
3 e/ W, c B& t5 ? X3 z
考虑到比特币和ETH的价格,IV下跌,这表明交易员一直不确定他们的看涨赌注是否会有回报。0 w1 M! Q3 Q( [- J% f9 [
如果这种情绪持续下去,ETH的价格可能会再次跌破2900美元。对于BTC来说,它可能会再次以低于59000美元的价格开始交易。- k6 h2 b9 C$ b$ C9 n# F
; u; }" |+ O& Z2 K# O
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11537 小时
本月在线: 66 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16958 小时
本月在线: 126 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3407 小时
本月在线: 24 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9396 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8211 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2137 小时
本月在线: 29 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12103 小时
本月在线: 26 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|