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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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6 n7 H$ E; d% J  M  i刚刚认真计算了一次;" B% M' T7 ]6 l1 w" R
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:9 w' N* _& T, t  Y1 m9 H

: N8 c6 S3 I1 @* ?+ G$ s3 p开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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  N% Q* K. r' o) ?开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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3 ?5 B% @7 e# O. v8 L% Z* Z收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;. ?$ n% S( \) c7 U
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以上,76gor/ O" v% g2 z' a3 K; H
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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+ r: K- D# c2 h假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,0 f: j8 L: J8 `5 L9 \0 l
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,0001 H  }1 M/ F! i. M$ |( |
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,1529 g! u' W8 G) [  q- i$ q

. ~* J. P& d$ {" G& D) K; [8 \假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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每天净收入为:¥652
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& J+ k, L% {6 o9 l. v年收入为:¥237,980) _" @# d& j. D8 d

  o( }0 N, _8 f唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
  J/ Z# C$ ?) L2 ?) Y5 @" O唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 0 N" G* T; ~7 a) o3 G9 P
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( T) X) L4 t0 l+ Y& M- p  K   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?
! S! b# U% x0 W8 T* g4 P7 lTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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$ G, t" Y1 x7 z! [    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,* P* n$ }: l3 X+ h3 W; h9 {, N6 \; W
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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" n# u- O6 Z; n+ {: f) W* Y# @    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;  U3 r0 P& e5 B: q+ h" G- s
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:. s2 K: I5 j; a4 [$ L; G9 L& p
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...' a/ P7 R* j1 ]( {: k
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏/ Y# N6 o" _8 s3 Z# C5 o
大概是1%多点' l( ^: S' E  z* D( W
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
# F' {4 J5 t+ ?6 a( g' X* x大概是1%多点
/ k5 H6 C! w; j1 |5 a: C; r2 G3 f, F" q
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...# e2 a# J5 j  I: N* k1 L: ]
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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. ^$ N' Z5 q/ k* |9 R; r  l9 K    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
  X% E0 v6 D5 V粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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, L7 _: E+ O$ e   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
- s8 x  c7 J3 F; k2 P/ B粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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! _+ q+ |% o+ B& v9 ?. |' n3 |# m5 A( ?' ^
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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