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研究显示:找到合适伴侣概率 堪比彩票中大奖
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[align=left][p=25, 2, left]三·八妇女节即将到来,女人和彩票成为彩民热议的话题。近日,有男性彩民表示:[b]现在找个Mrssright(合适的女朋友)比彩票中奖还难![/b]此话题引起彩民关注。[/p][p=25, 2, left]“找Mrssright”和“彩票中奖”,两个看似风马牛不相及的事,就这样被彩民放在一起做比较。[/p][p=25, 2, left]“谈恋爱就像在打仗,虚虚实实,让男人觉得头晕!要找Mrssright就像是买彩票,中大奖的概率好低!”一位网友一语道破了“找Mrssright”和“彩票中奖”的共同之处。[/p][p=25, 2, left][b]都是低概率事件[/b][/p][p=25, 2, left]在微博上,有一种流传很广的说法:据研究,人一生会遇到约2920万人,两个人相爱的概率是0.000049。[/p][p=25, 2, left]对此,有人表示,这种说法也许不尽真实,但考虑到人海茫茫,人的秉性各异,以及诸如房子、车子等各种现实因素,两个人若能相爱,的确称得上是奇迹。从概率的角度说,我们都是在期望一个低概率的目标,数字期望值是很低的。[/p][p=25, 2, left]同样,多数买彩票的人都怀着一个大奖梦,不过最终能美梦成真的人却微乎其微。统计数据显示,我国彩市各种游戏的中奖概率差异不小,其中,双色球头奖的中奖概率大约是1/17000000,体彩22选5头奖的中奖概率大约是1/26334。据说中该游戏头奖的概率跟被雷劈的概率差不多。[/p][p=25, 2, left]可见,无论是找Mrssright,还是买彩票中大奖,都不是件容易事。[/p][p=25, 2, left][b]低概率能否被改变[/b][/p][p=25, 2, left]既然找Mrssright和买彩票中奖的概率都不高,那么有没有可能通过一些方法提高概率呢?“概率是客观存在的。谈恋爱时,概率在前期起作用,后期是主动性在发挥作用。两个人相遇的概率不高,但相遇后一方可通过主观努力改变结果,比如,女人可能在初次见面时没感觉,但男方可以有针对性地通过送花、细心照顾等行为赢得女人的好感;买彩票就不一样了,彩民只有在选号环节可以发挥主动性,一旦投注,概率就发生作用了,中不中奖只能看运气。”一位彩民分析说。[/p][p=25, 2, left]对于彩票中奖概率能不能被改变,一些经济学家也早给出了自己的答案。2009年时,一位名叫彼得(Peter)的加拿大籍彩民对英国《金融时报》一位写专栏的经济学家说:亲爱的经济学家,为了解决不断恶化的财务状况,我已经开始买国家彩票了。尽管我知道获奖的可能性不大,但我在想,如果我坚持买同一个号码,而不是随机产生的“快速选号”,我的获奖几率是否会增加?[/p][p=25, 2, left]对此,经济学家答道:亲爱的彼得,你似乎在脑海里设想了一个相当迷人的情景:你扮演的是一个走丢的小孩,而开奖机扮演的是一直坚持寻找你的父母。这被称为“会合问题”(rendezvousproblem),一般而言,待在原地让开奖机来找你,会对你更加有利。不过,开奖机不会努力寻找你的号码。它对之前开出的号码组合没有记忆,所以每次开奖,所有号码组合被选中(或未被选中)的几率都一样。[/p][/align] |
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