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[b]拿什么来拯救你我的纸币[/b]) `+ a7 o. _1 E+ u
美债危机的爆发让黄金的避险功能发挥到极致,几乎以“一日一新高”的姿态不断飙出新纪录,盘中最高点曾突破每盎司1800美元大关。随着投资者争相买进黄金寻求避险,市场对金价成为“终极资产泡沫”的传言四起。而业内人士指出,金价何去何从,还需看美元“脸色”。“黑色星期一”——8月8日,美国评级调降后的第一个交易日,全球金融市场可谓风声鹤唳、草木皆兵。继8月5日美国长期主权信用评级被下调后,标准普尔又马不停蹄地将美国贷款抵押融资公司房利美和房地美的评级由AAA下调至AA+。5 X2 f! f$ w' O+ \
酝酿了60多小时的全球性恐慌情绪急剧膨胀,作为避险天堂的国际金市8月8日开盘后快速冲破每盎司1700美元的“天花板”,再创历史新高,盘中涨幅一度超过70美元。
2 n& _2 y* W8 K4 v% R [b]纸币都已经信不过了[/b]& @0 V4 }- l% j' s3 e
“引发黄金价格暴涨的原因只有一个——投资者对全球经济形势的担忧。”兴业银行首席分析师梁芹对记者直言,受债务危机影响,美国经济形势每况愈下,欧元区同样深陷主权债务危机。欧美股市大跌,世界经济前景变得不明朗,由此引发避险资金蜂拥进入黄金市场。
8 }( K# u! G+ w. L! Z* R 财经评论员叶檀同样认为,黄金价格上升是纸币贬值、经济下行的重要标志。她分析说,在所有纸币都不被信任的情况下,期货品种中最具有金融属性的黄金脱颖而出,成为经济恐慌时代的“诺亚方舟”。) W& R' e0 z- w: x
“投资者的担心不无道理,”中创黄金投资分析师刘超对记者说,“发达国家的经济问题开始侵蚀美元和欧元的价值,看着手中的钱一天天缩水,投资黄金就成了最好的保值手段。”' o$ T1 u9 Q+ H5 ~, j
[b] 何时见顶难料[/b]
( Q! \8 A2 k* }; I' N/ O* I( [/ ?- n 一年前,每盎司1500美元的金价曾被业内人士誉为“天方夜谭”,而眼下突破每盎司2000美元的价格指日可待。金价究竟会涨到多少?这是一直令市场感到纠结的问题。业内不断有声音说黄金将遭遇“拐点”,而金价将见顶的言论也不绝于耳,投机大师索罗斯甚至称黄金是“终极资产泡沫”。; H S& \0 ?6 P% Q, U0 ]! c; X2 |( a
“黄金会涨到哪里,并不取决于黄金本身,而取决于全球尤其是美国经济复苏的速度和纸币贬值的速度,”叶檀说,“我们必须为不负责任的货币政策付出代价,而黄金就是通胀的镜像。”+ o- y1 t4 P4 G c2 ^& l, X6 n
梁芹分析指出,金价的走势与美元息息相关,美元强,黄金弱,反之亦然。近期,虽然全球避险资金几乎都涌向了黄金,但金价是否见顶并不取决于个人投资者的蜂拥而入,而是取决于美国经济复苏的进程和美国货币政策的变化。
) L- V, d! c5 s2 v' e: L2 R% n0 B" z 刘超则分析说,美国经济二次探底的风险犹存,QE3可谓呼之欲出。这意味着,美元进一步下滑和黄金保值需求仍将继续,其印钞效应对黄金的推动作用则非常直接。+ X5 Q2 S$ f$ k
鉴于近期黄金走势强于市场预期,尤其是9月后是黄金的强势季节,他对金价中长期走势持乐观观点。
) @ |' E" s; A/ s" b [ T% x 而在梁芹看来,市场对美国此次评级下调的反应过度,已经透支了金价未来一段时间的涨幅。一旦恐慌情绪平复,投机资金从金市的撤退步伐将非常迅速,金价可能应声下跌。- r% E$ s* I& y+ V
无论如何,黄金市场已进入前所未有的“无人区”,与其他前景扑朔迷离的市场一样,业内人士建议投资者更多寻求保值,而非盈利。 |
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