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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘! A" @2 c0 `! f: u: T+ j: l1 t" l
" i, T; L+ u" V9 ]: Y2 r
初盘高水,豪门要防冷
% i% W- S7 z# M# o
- i: }1 ~6 ^) S8 l
L; U0 u, w0 r# Z8 ] 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
, n/ N6 M; M: D; e/ w. e 英超主队/ E$ b" G- O' I2 X5 f* X5 G! \
胜:11场 79%
. ? O% h8 z: G \2 U 平:2场 14%% V* K" _2 _, ~/ k4 c
负:1场 7%
8 T% n5 E" b y7 w: }
: j3 }: H. [* r( k, n0 a5 K' s 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。$ D/ } k2 i7 `8 o
! h, J. q1 \8 P 一、初盘阶段
7 ]1 ?( [. V. ^5 v# p3 B7 _ ' ~' ?+ s$ [3 e, w3 Q
具体到水位如下:
1 e1 P" P' U3 |: G% Z+ L7 I 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜/ ^2 u3 j# a! b- V* l3 v
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平) u3 \" I3 M, Y& G
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平# M3 s {2 e! g
, U/ P+ A. z0 `. ]- T; N 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
7 d9 W* x: y4 Z/ ] 4 Y n9 V! p1 R( U: q
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
. T' b+ G& S) C) W 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
! P5 ^5 s/ L3 ^2 I% O+ Z 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
% A7 f( N; E$ t; ]% j( ~1 d
1 T8 R2 d! N5 t1 W/ b 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。: x; N2 |5 a8 k$ ]
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。& U# Z: f# o$ _/ H9 [* S1 }7 G/ g
% ~( U, J D& H8 `7 O# T4 P: }. X# @ 二、临场阶段& \( }( L/ w0 x1 I1 S' B5 Z
, F- ^6 H9 T+ a( ~8 `! f3 G; d' O
具体到盘口如下:
( d& e' M) v5 Q! Q3 A5 }, Y) C 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜' N6 B4 p' \" T7 y
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
9 S5 T- {' {- s; X 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
3 u" d$ A& _; f) D: W # |' Q" _) z/ J" ~ k6 H, {3 [
热刺VS伯恩利
& q, u9 q) g% U. O 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
3 ?% P( w5 n; e5 n4 E 终盘:0.77球半1.090 k4 J0 C! o; Y1 ~
; L6 l' d6 x8 b2 ?+ g# a5 @0 Z) o 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
; ^7 B- P7 @7 s5 _# f
) q# C# o3 @. `/ L/ s* z4 f$ _2 I 三、球队表现
8 D/ i; g& s3 z+ f; s
) I& _2 P4 n0 \+ r 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
2 D" t. e, [1 i! O4 V
; f% ]1 F6 f5 q. ^& f 四、投注要点
# q5 I. `4 n7 I
6 y$ Q2 ?8 f4 O4 z0 \ 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证9 `8 o; u" y1 g. o9 w
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
* q w& S) c/ J) d 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能8 O8 Y( X- C" q! M9 G
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
9 ]$ a" r* ?- k5 J4 d3 c 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低5 d/ ?$ q% L: J& }: _) }0 h( o# U
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任7 b. d6 {6 ?5 x' |
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视2 L: {/ g V7 j8 j- s! G( G5 P
, O1 }# x9 _7 B 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
0 l4 g/ U- \( T 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方( y2 |% F- ?! A% f; L5 l: q
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。8 [7 e# K4 F! ]5 f8 ]- v+ E
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