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[lastpost] => 2787339 比特币盈利指标跌至两年低点，可能表明局部底部正在形成（转） 1765067369 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。
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7 W4 p/ R0 S8 Q7 Y' S截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。$ L; Z7 n7 r- |, v; C
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此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。
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8 g9 n7 v9 L$ K8 U* B贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊
& g; d; m! k" W) v5 _8 \12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。! W% Y" R) N0 F' y$ {
7 h6 k' K: _7 c0 ]分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。# B5 u. ^- [; h" I0 s& h- n8 [
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他说：& V- k7 o7 v9 [: y; J- E
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“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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% Q. r% r1 s# F8 T. \# Q3 s因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？& G u) Z7 C$ ]8 w
1 i" @, J$ `) z6 C! n; o$ Q此举为何引发担忧？6 @2 W: w! s0 m- ]# k9 _: ^
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。! ?2 C) K+ E% R2 ]* A5 p
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在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。7 D- H- h- ?: J* A" Q9 s, A4 N
: k5 k+ ?* {" ]! Z对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。/ _1 N. ~. e! R7 K
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
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$ ^" f5 U8 u. o4 Q0 T& [/ \还会有更多销售吗？( l! ?' r8 w, k
然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。1 R/ W: ~; x) U2 i$ ]. V' F
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对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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! D# V0 [% y' Z. W2 }& G L; B4 o贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。& O* n4 S& q6 |7 l1 \" w
, @! D9 C( V8 W' O7 j通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。
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" {& k/ J# ]- y: b# ]8 Q! }' K即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。7 m4 ~3 v9 b' q5 J
/ p2 j* K5 u# k3 e截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。+ Q L7 `" B) J5 E( E' {1 ]* H
: X* G8 p: g' E, C7 y8 A来源：Trading View8 j; M8 a- N3 }" M. @6 p8 e$ J% a
5 T% ]& I/ U/ W/ Y9 [5 i8 [' b1 @ r要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。7 X' H% B4 u. m) |$ S5 B: ?2 f& i
5 |; @; B2 f4 a! {) K7 p4 T在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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最后想说的话
: W5 a$ [4 i) C5 n" c7 Q! e零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。
, Q u' c/ Y' E3 o4 d技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。# B1 F2 _( |, W: _
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