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[lastpost] => 2751015 才刚欢呼完比特币冲上天,下一秒又说它要掉下来!信清崎?信分析师?还是信自己? 1753546944 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员夸大了美国主导的关税战对比特币价格的影响(转)
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虽然美国主导的关税战被归咎于比特币(BTC)今年以来的疲软表现,但还有其他因素也在拖累比特币价格。
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( m. W1 P- W5 y; w* G+ e5 l尽管比特币在4月1日上涨了2.2%,但自3月7日以来,比特币的交易价格一直未突破8.9万美元。尽管近期的价格疲软通常与美国主导的全球贸易战升级有关,但在特朗普总统宣布关税之前,已经有多个因素长期影响着投资者情绪。+ N( T% C& a, {& I/ `, c
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7 t% a3 l3 E; w w' R4 c% I一些市场参与者声称,自2月以来,策略公司购买了价值52.5亿美元的比特币,这可能是比特币能够维持在8万美元支撑位之上的主要原因。然而,不论是谁在购买,现实是比特币在特朗普总统于1月21日宣布对天朝进口商品征收10%关税之前,已经显示出有限的上涨空间。
% y' S8 i. _3 L7 L" p" l标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)在2月19日创下历史新高,这恰好是贸易战爆发后的30天,而比特币在过去三个月里屡次未能维持在10万美元以上。尽管贸易战显然影响了投资者的风险偏好,但强有力的证据表明,比特币价格的疲软早在特朗普总统于1月20日上任之前就已经开始。
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现货比特币ETF流入、战略比特币储备预期和通货膨胀趋势! ]0 W: ^; `6 q5 Y0 p( N, V
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$ d) F0 D% g7 H t. O' p1 g: O0 {$ j另一个削弱关税与比特币价格关系的数据点是现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETFs)。在1月21日之后的三周里,现货比特币ETF净流入达到了27.5亿美元。到2月18日,美国宣布计划对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收关税,而欧盟和天朝已作出报复。实质上,即使贸易战加剧,机构对比特币的需求依然存在。) O5 v& b& _% A
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( E- J' E* f4 z3 {& ~: p- V比特币交易员在1月21日后失望的部分原因是过度的预期,尤其是围绕特朗普总统在2024年7月比特币大会上提到的“战略国家比特币储备”承诺。随着投资者逐渐失去耐心,他们的挫败感在3月6日发布的实际行政命令时达到了顶峰。
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% ^: |% }: E5 J比特币难以突破8.9万美元的一个关键因素是通货膨胀趋势,这反映出全球央行相对成功的货币政策策略。2025年2月,美国个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数同比上涨了2.5%,而欧元区消费者物价指数(CPI)在3月上涨了2.2%。7 |6 h( Q( J; N5 u3 D# G
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# A8 z# k# H6 ~, a0 K在2022年下半年,比特币的涨幅主要受到通胀超过5%的推动,这表明企业和家庭将加密货币作为对抗货币贬值的对冲工具。然而,如果2025年通胀保持相对可控,较低的利率将更有利于房地产和股市,而不是比特币,因为降低融资成本将直接促进这些领域的发展。% e) Y+ h& d. k k: j+ L
疲软的就业市场也抑制了交易者对风险资产的需求,包括比特币。2025年2月,美国劳工部报告称,职位空缺接近四年来的最低水平。类似地,美国2年期国债收益率降至六个月来的最低点,投资者接受仅为3.88%的回报,以换取ZF支持工具的安全性。这些数据显示,风险规避的选择在上升,这对比特币不利。0 E m4 [. G; D' ]
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2 L8 o; j( w9 S6 \3 T0 [( ^归根结底,比特币价格的疲软源于投资者对美国财政部收购比特币的非现实预期、支持潜在降息的通货膨胀下降,以及随着投资者转向短期ZF债券而形成的更为谨慎的宏观经济环境。尽管贸易战产生了负面影响,但比特币在贸易战开始之前就已显示出疲软的迹象。* {3 V) g2 `& p3 G! p1 w4 f
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