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最近的天气已经飙到30度了,兄弟们,眼瞅着春天来了,咱们盼的牛市没来,反倒二三月份接连踩雷,先是关水问题带崩行情,后是BYBIT交易所被盗ETH,很多人都已经割肉离场。当所有人对市场不抱希望的时候,大盘又偷偷摸摸开始普涨,再度贩卖希望。
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: k9 `( k. l7 ]7 p+ n3 n) ?2 D昨日波动大一些,我在内部已经讲解的非常清楚,仍然是反弹和反转的故事。目前虽然能看到向好的一面发展的方向,但还不足以走出反转的路线,美联储的货币政策以及川普的关税仍然充满了变数。
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. J# U7 v' ?+ J$ A5 k3 m7 j" R$ S' DBTC 现在仍然是和美股高度相关的,当没有独立利好数据的时候,美股的涨跌很大程度上都会影响 $BTC 价格的变动,但虽然下跌,成交量仍然少的可怜,当然,上涨的时候也是一样,拉出来 Binance 和 Coinbase 的成交量就能看到,现在几乎是最近两年最低的成交量。这也标志着 BTC 又进入到了垃圾时间,而垃圾时间的意思就是小幅震荡。6 H+ d2 X( u: [5 Q4 W# R7 f
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从换手的数据来看,短期投资者的换手仍然是主导,但换手率和成交量一样都在下跌,投资者的买卖情绪也是进入垃圾时间的标志。
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需要注意的是现在仍然是现在仍然是事件驱动作为震荡的主导,也就是在宏观背景没有改变的情况下,事件是引发涨跌的主要原因。2 r( R6 K% t! s& H$ S8 q3 _% U
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思考一下大盘未来整体的方向以及仓位规划:6 t5 o# J) l& }6 a+ \% |$ F
: c) w$ n4 l1 d( `对于BTC:在没有破新低之前,都可以暂时把76606假设为本轮回调的最低点,然后围绕这个思路去规划。
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把现在的回调看做是针对57493以来的上涨的回调9 O8 x7 k. J2 d' z- V/ H
4 J# w! p2 b- Z- P; s1 x2 N. y 1.根据盈利预期以及风险承受能力,在目前的区间逢低建仓多头仓位,至于中间是否做波段,是否来回做,看个人能力而言。
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. a1 \. K1 m) o 2.博弈的是以76606为最低点,走出一波上涨趋势行情,目标是破前高。
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市场想走大牛市还差点火候,现在适合搞点短线,见好就收别贪心。. t; `( e6 ^+ Q, o9 q
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ETH为什么之前能跑出独立牛市,而现在跑出不独立牛市?& s, n1 m8 p8 G2 |
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2020年6-7月开始,DIFI开始爆发,E/B汇率初现反转爬坡形态; 2021年3月,在比特币达到顶部区间横盘之际:以太坊社区正在积极讨论EIP-1559(以太坊改进提案),该提案计划在7月的“伦敦硬分叉”中实施。EIP-1559引入了费用燃烧机制,旨在减少ETH的通胀并改善用户体验。这一预期显著提振了市场对ETH的信心;
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) P6 }2 P% M7 {4 y5 R1 W" s% f7 ~DeFi和NFT热潮:2021年初,去中心化金融(DeFi)和非同质化代币(NFT)在以太坊网络上迅速崛起。Uniswap、Aave等DeFi项目和CryptoPunks、OpenSea等NFT平台的流行,增加了对ETH的需求; EIP-1550,DEFI,NFT无一不是币圈的重大叙事,叠加下来,ETH实现了从最低点近40倍的涨幅。
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2024-2025年-内生叙事崩塌重构元年,有效内生叙事=0。至于 BNB ,目前还是处于模仿SOLANA的阶段,看不到什么新鲜的东西,SOL都不行了,我想不到任何MEME季在BSC上卷土重来的理由。 ( a. Z7 W5 Z3 e- a% H z; [- q
6 ~ f+ U* ^3 m0 K; z那么思路就相对清晰了,不管是ETH/SOL/BNB还是什么其他的山寨,谁在这个时候能出现真正的有吸引力的东西、产品、叙事、故事;谁就能虹吸整个币圈的山寨流动性。 无人机应用技术:专业代码为460609: Z5 m+ i9 n7 D& E7 Y
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当前离线
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