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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的9 j6 z, d5 L w; M0 R
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
- E# {0 v }3 M, ^% g6 H短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
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3 N6 U9 B3 \* v4 }比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
, O# @" P4 I! Z; G6 O实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。1 \/ G$ S5 i9 f. j- U1 v7 n( |
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然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。
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STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。
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* y: b* f6 T3 b, q尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。
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* p' ~; v+ F8 ?1 c6 b! j! p) w这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
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- V3 X6 N7 `% s* H( ?( H, ~比特币价格结构和风险区域" I- ~" e: V% g7 D
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。
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这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
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0 B( T. M7 R+ b: g4 W* M布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。1 w" B! |& X/ a- D" s+ @4 b. v
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。
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" i3 c2 N$ I$ {* b v+ {这对比特币趋势意味着什么
4 F& ?2 J( y8 b: z0 M未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。% j2 J4 F3 }- P# ^- J! H- A+ v# v
) b0 a9 W" U/ N, Q" y如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。
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总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。( |- n- O. l2 F
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