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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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+ A+ V7 k- z5 H9 k8 L, i4 x刚刚认真计算了一次;
& h# e8 X; _0 j5 @8 m1 I$ g: o( d) ]  l- h0 `
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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- h1 h7 M- R; T1 Z* [开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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* B! \) p) g. x- l收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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1 U, _: a& }3 q* n1 J所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;4 z  z% n, z  F/ i

4 }& Q8 `% u& J( F5 Q加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;' c7 J( |; U  y
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以上,76gor* ?1 x9 Y0 U- p2 ^+ l' H
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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/ z( h: W( g+ i1 L& @假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,4 e$ m1 p6 E3 F) \0 c. m/ X
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
) q4 @; v1 W9 }' b, A2 b8 Z( k' g9 l2 W每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
1 A4 {, g6 U5 L% v5 d. ^
' M' w" o5 J! J* ^7 k' e假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
5 O6 W% y& a: t! V2 }7 A( I" Q$ t* U! ^' v" i. |
每天净收入为:¥652" P0 W6 h/ w$ q) K/ H7 O. R9 ?- A
2 K. F1 }4 }( |
年收入为:¥237,980* ~+ ?( h" O) a7 i
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;, H: I4 Z  _' U4 i
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;- M7 U$ H; ?" ]' R; b) a6 g' g' t

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回复 2# 76gor
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- n! N" _+ |& b/ r   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?
  T+ k: e8 a9 G- F" z$ \0 g  `0 |Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

  u' F' V* ]0 G0 ]* O- F! K: U
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* z) J& l: k* W: k: y8 n& ^4 o    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
1 P& N9 G; Q, [# |- F* [* _8 F% N# v$ xbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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, `/ C- q# h3 i& F    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
: }! R8 H& M- o. M  T; J9 G$ F% t6 E
4 S, q) y$ R3 C: M; N假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:* K6 p1 P) L2 [6 z8 K
. ^6 P9 t% {8 j8 w' ?
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
/ I( b. N6 ~+ Z1 m$ i- l76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏% H$ z. d! k- ?/ A5 y0 S9 n
大概是1%多点
" |2 \/ R; H$ G& d7 N) r! ?: t) d1 \8 t0 c
" E# h0 \5 W  ^至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏- n7 {  x" D4 W. n% F
大概是1%多点! M9 o/ Q3 K1 l$ n
# K& C3 w1 M6 q6 ^6 }
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
% n" f! p5 o$ O5 J, ]' T7 R0 Xtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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" @$ `) G; h$ y$ x    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?( w- {0 Z$ \/ l0 x$ J4 [! h
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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" @: G# ~( H: i! i- D8 V: f6 l0 f3 F+ r7 x# Z1 \
    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 4 x1 g8 a5 V" X7 A- w: b

6 ~  z  R9 s- y; c. b! O, B# H9 k! v! h
   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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17#
回复  76gor
9 b( ]$ K4 Z4 d# s! j- m. m1 T/ w6 [8 ^3 D

! s$ U9 n0 o6 F* \   有个风险就是豹子吧!
" j: @" E; U3 |粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

& A2 n; k4 X) G3 d0 t# u" Q  }; _! [4 N8 V% e& t4 z5 p* F
" F% J8 Y# N& I
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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