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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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3 s0 x! o0 u  D/ z开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;+ s' |9 T, z1 f5 y$ H/ c5 o' Y
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/720 f" o1 v$ X6 a
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.53 ~* I+ S5 d! I9 o. I- x
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;' }$ s7 N$ `- y: a
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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3 p( }  @+ h' ], L9 C以上,76gor% V- u  g) ^' N" j$ n
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,7 o) u4 M8 [* P
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000- ~  c0 s- R/ _# P1 ^+ O/ H
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152  e- ~5 ^, s$ b# P' C) j& Z

8 @5 T. k- x8 F2 {; w2 h! L假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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& {" T' ^" j; d. T$ s, g每天净收入为:¥652
$ {7 Z* o9 O* p% n% H. f* P# u+ ?  t- T+ C! D
年收入为:¥237,980
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7 j- A1 C1 W* {7 J2 U. t唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
; C$ C8 x# ?2 O4 E0 g唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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7 T! t' r; {! h7 i  b  L   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?; W8 L$ Y$ U" p# g2 v
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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! i, Q! A: I* L& f    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,8 U' b8 \+ x  \# A1 x9 V. a8 B1 y
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
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0 H0 e% g8 g: @假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...! ?  ?3 ~- L4 ~
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏, ^3 h: ]7 E- I; J
大概是1%多点, Z3 L! J3 e8 r+ l& [8 X  R5 j$ j( R
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
( _  P2 v6 ~; {7 d0 R( f+ D大概是1%多点& M  _+ N! D6 x$ f4 Z8 _

( @9 i! q& Q. p7 h8 d至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...1 T' J% u$ q% k( j; @, p5 J
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
) S8 I1 i  A9 u+ ^. P  A粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor ' _$ D% n2 V' w

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor $ D4 i4 u, a9 I- z" t
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& L5 J8 e# W( F$ Q* \! ]   有个风险就是豹子吧!
' o' ]) }/ D: q' s( t; b3 ~+ l粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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+ [  R8 f6 J2 v$ U& Q2 p: j    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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