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从一千万到两千亿 公益彩票发展有没有天花板？
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如果你的面前是一堵坚不可摧的墙，无论你能跑多快，最终你都跑不过那堵墙；
0 a3 t8 Y7 d8 a8 q0 ~ 如果你的头顶是一道坚不可摧的天花板，无论你能飞多高，最终你都飞不过那道天花板。
0 o$ l9 E5 {3 R$ k/ M5 P 墙和天花板的存在是为了告诉人们，这个世界是有极限的，那么具体到天朝的公益彩票，它的发展有没有天花板呢？
6 x3 y6 }; Q( o5 z1 B/ o1 o" @ 在我看来，截止到目前为止，公益彩票的发展一直保持着高速的势头，在它发展的前方，象征极限的天花板还没有出现。" k& n! o. c; H/ J$ I
2001年时，国务院研究中心彩票课题组对外发布消息，预计2010年天朝公益彩票的市场规模有望达到846亿的规模，当时多数人都认为846亿的市场规模是痴人说梦，因为在2001年，全年的彩票销售总额也不过288亿，从288亿到846亿，中间差了558亿，如此大的缺口怎么可能在9年内消化掉呢？
# `, A. `3 S% r 后来发生的事就不需要我多说了，市场数据说明了一切，到2007年，全国公益彩票的市场规模已经跨过了千亿大关，比预计的2010年，提前了3年，比预计的846亿，提高了200亿，而这一切，不过在6年中发生。
, N9 o+ S& H4 o+ n6 ^- u2 X8 h& b! r 从2001年到2007年，人们一直以为彩票发展有一道若隐若现的天花板，至少在1000亿的大门前，会有一道难以越过的槛。1 C, {6 K6 u3 P( _) h
然而事实却是，1000亿的大门是虚掩着的，1000亿那道门槛也不是高不可攀，轻轻一抬脚，鲤鱼跃龙门。
% m) d, p1 W+ }( b- X) o 鲤鱼跃龙门，公益彩票高速发展的势头依然不减，在2007年突破1000亿关口之后，2008年达到1059亿，2009年更是达到了1324亿，而进入2010年后，增长的势头更为迅猛。; ~* E1 S) q! f; m7 S$ w- r
近日财政部对外公布了2010年1到7月全国公益彩票的销售情况，公告显示，前7个月全国共销售彩票905亿，与去年同比增长23%，如果按照这个势头发展下去，2010年全年的彩票销售额预计会达到1600亿。而按照彩票销售的客观规律，下半年彩票销售情况一般要明显好于上半年，这样来看，乐观估计，2010年全年彩票销售额有望达到1800亿的规模，至此，距离2000亿的年销售量，也不过咫尺之遥。 |
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