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大福证券：维持买入永利澳门 目标价13.7港元
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永利澳门于2009年下半年的经营环境改善，使该公司全年录得盈利20.69亿元，与我们的预期相若。由于贵宾赌台的转码数按年减少2%及中场赌台的投注额按年减少13%，导致赌台净收益按年下降5%，故该公司的经营收益按年下降4%至141亿元。
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该公司实施有效的成本控制措施，员工成本及经营开支分别按年减少6%及11%，因此，永利澳门2009年的经营利润达24亿元，经营利润率攀升至17.2%，而2008年的经营利润率则为15.8%。我们估计该公司于2009年采取的成本控制措施可发挥必要作用，于2010年进一步改善永利澳门的经营利润率。# J7 a/ ^' O+ R4 Q$ U% u- k3 ^
* _$ l: v' {7 k2 y永利澳门今年的纯利，与去年的20.40亿元大致相若，仅按年微升1%，并因低息环境使非经营利息收入按年下降94%至约600万元而稍微受影响。
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$ m' w# [; S9 U5 C2 a/ b4 g净负债比率为1.7倍，而净债务对扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利的比率则约为1.9倍，符合财务契诺须将比率维持于5.0倍以下的规定。我们进一步估计永利澳门可于2011年录得净现金状况。管理层严格控制其应收款项，减轻对盈利的影响。于2009年，永利澳门录得坏帐累积拨备约2.69亿元，主要因2008年金融海啸而作出1.93亿元的大额拨备所致。于2009年，累积拨备占应收款项总额的45%，于2008年则占应收款项总额的58%。
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6 m. n0 V' \4 {2009年第四季，澳门总博彩收入呈上升趋势，永利澳门于该季亦跟随市场增长的强势，贵宾赌台转码数按年上升54%至约1,320亿元，而中场赌台投注额则按年上升5%至40亿元。而贵宾赌台转码数由约1,100亿元按季强劲增长约20%至1,320亿元，部份原因是该公司于2009年11月增加29张贵宾赌台所致。永利澳门的Encore已完工并预期于本月开业，该精品酒店将加设角子机、约37张贵宾赌台及24张中场赌台，以及414间豪华套房及渡假别墅式套房，使该娱乐场的贵宾赌台规模及数量增加19%至233张。我们估计本年度1月及2月博彩市场的增长动力可于短期内持续，而作为顶级娱乐场永利澳门扩展部份的Encore开业，应可令该公司进一步增长。 - \2 S3 i. J+ ~+ R+ P
5 P$ z+ _% R6 [/ C该股的估值较其上市同业有所溢价，公司备有潜力产生稳健盈利，而Encore开业可于短期内刺激该公司的业务发展，我们认为估值仍具吸引力。我们重申对该股的买入评级，新目标价为13.70元，相当于2011年预计企业价值对扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利的比率14.5倍。 |
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