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女足出线分析：3战7分可晋级 死磕日澳希望渺茫
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北京时间9月3日晚间，天朝女足在山东省体完成了伦敦奥预赛的第二场比赛，在与朝鲜队的激战中铿锵玫瑰奋战90分钟仍旧破门乏术，韩端打满全场但没有改变女足锋无力的现状，最终两队0-0握手言和。第二轮的其余比赛当中澳大利亚队5-1大胜泰国、日本队2-1力克韩国队，这样一来日本队连胜掌握主动，朝鲜、澳洲紧随其后。收获2分女足必须在后三轮与泰国、澳大利亚、日本的比赛中拿到7分才有戏。7 o6 H3 s9 Y4 ^1 Q6 x( m3 F
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首战打平韩国之后天朝女足遭遇朝鲜队，两队向来是亚洲女子足坛的老冤家，但在过去十年的交手记录上天朝女足在正赛上只有06年亚洲杯半决赛战胜了对手，十年正赛仅仅一胜。女足早已经落后于朝鲜队是不争的事实，不过本次奥预赛朝鲜队整容不整实力有所下降，女足姑娘则更为团结在走上坡路，两队的比赛进行的比较胶着。4 g$ e6 F4 G; I4 D0 {( p/ J1 Q- ^
开场之后天朝队凭借着周菲菲在右路的活跃不断的威胁着朝鲜队的大门，周菲菲起球、韩端禁区内做给徐媛，徐媛完成射门，这样的套路在上半时为女足制造了不少的机会，但徐媛射术不精、韩端不在最佳状态令天朝队迟迟难以打破僵局，下半时比赛朝鲜队拥有了体能上的优势，此役李霄鹏仅仅在锋线派出韩端其余位置与首战完全相同，女足队员在下半时体能出现了不小的问题。首战拿到3分的朝鲜队踢得有些保守，双方最终0-0战和。$ ]' n- ^, b- z/ _( {
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两轮过后天朝女足收获了两个0-0，在赛前中朝之战被定义为了女足的生死大战，果然没有拿下朝鲜队天朝女足迎来了完全被动的一个局面。今天的其余两场比赛当中澳大利亚轻取泰国，日本队力克韩国，日本拿到6分掌控了主动权，朝鲜队两战4分排在第二，并且朝鲜队还没有与泰国这个送分童子相遇，可以说朝鲜女足拥有在最后两轮逆转日本的可能，韩国队两战之后仅仅拿到1分，太极虎基本淡出了竞争。
# S! g# N6 M9 W9 R$ [1 ?& B 天朝女足虽然还有出线希望，但比较困难，接下来的三轮比赛女足担子不轻，除去第三轮与泰国队交手女足可以乐观的憧憬三分之外，第四轮与澳大利亚、第五轮与日本队的比赛女足姑娘就是保平也没有百分百的把握。亚洲区只有两张伦敦奥运门票，女足想要晋级就必须迎头赶上，即便先算上与泰国队的三分，最后两战姑娘们还必须掀翻日澳至少一队。
6 B. S; X. E1 L* [) y 对于女足姑娘最为有利的情况是这样的，第三轮打泰国争取更多的净胜球，第四轮能够在澳大利亚身上拿到3分，那时候女足的排名应该会在第二位，最后一轮与日本队的比赛或许会成为一场打平即可携手出线的比赛。3连胜或者胜胜平，天朝队即可出线。+ x3 X5 V. a" k+ e. D: e) q& V
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另一种情况则是拿下泰国、战平澳大利亚，然后最后一场死磕日本争胜，这种情况女足也可能出线难度稍大。综上两种情况天朝队必须在接下来三轮比赛拿到7分才有竞争力。如果是两胜一负女足出线的唯一可能就是澳大利亚与朝鲜在后三场比赛中马失前蹄，这几乎没有太大可能。如果拿到小于6分的分数，最终积分不足8分的天朝队基本不可能出线。. Q. ~7 P# e. d# |/ X
也就是说3战7分是女足的一个底线，拿下泰国队之后在日本队与澳大利亚身上至少拿到4分？这有些传奇，日本队是新科世界冠军在此次奥预赛上已经展现出来了优越性，澳大利亚的打法对于现在这支女足来讲很难招架得住，以目前的防守澳洲猛女的冲击力很容易冲破女足防线，死磕亚洲两强女足希望渺茫，现在来看在6抢2的竞争中，天朝队希望不足两成。 |
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