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来源：环球市场播报曾被誉为金融界 “不羁顽童” 的比特币，正随着剧烈波动的消退显现出 “成熟” 迹象，这迫使喜好投机的交易员们寻找新的 “游乐场”。, |* W" E' _8 w* ]4 ^& f
随着华尔街 “买入并持有” 型投资者大举入场，这种全球最大的加密货币正越来越像一只蓝筹股。其年化波动率已从十多年前接近 200% 的水平，降至 38% 这一曾被认为 “难以想象” 的低位。据字节树资产管理公司（Bytetree Asset Management）数据，目前比特币的波动率已与星巴克（Starbucks Corp．）、高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc．）等传统企业股票相当。" V- f- m" f2 y4 m
反观那些追逐价格波动的投资者，他们正将目光转向比特币的竞争对手 —— 全球第二大虚拟货币以太坊。在本月多个交易日中，继一波企业买入热潮后，以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）的交易量已持平甚至超过比特币 ETF。
7 U; V% O* \( D: M5 b7 L _1 p贝莱德（BlackRock）的以太坊 ETF 今年 4 月才刚刚推出，其未平仓期权头寸规模已达 55 亿美元，约为加密货币衍生品平台 Deribit 上以太坊期权未平仓量的 40%。
8 w3 k1 \/ j/ H; l; r当前市场格局反映出一种常见的资金轮动趋势：比特币正日益被视为长期持有的资产，而机构接纳程度仍处于早期阶段的以太坊，则成了追求更大波动的交易员的 “首选标的”。
% K W1 [% m& e; [, p: X“这并非普涨行情，” 数字资产管理公司 Arca 的首席投资官杰夫・多尔曼（Jeff Dorman）表示。他指出，近期大部分交易活动都集中在比特币和以太坊上。
2 _% J- e7 D, N- |( @9 F& o9 _但两者的交易动机存在差异。“对许多交易员而言，比特币的交易机会已经兑现，” 研究公司 Etherealize 的创始人维韦克・拉曼（Vivek Raman）称，“而以太坊仍给人‘持仓不足’的感觉，波动性更强，对市场信号的反应也更灵敏。”( k! w! i/ Z8 c
周五当天，由于全球金融市场交易员都在为美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）即将在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表的备受关注的讲话做准备，比特币和以太坊的价格均变动不大。其中，比特币周五盘中跌至 111，666 美元，为 7 月 10 日以来的最低水平。
% S$ _1 q9 i) }1 k" H$ _今年 8 月以来，投资者已向以太坊 ETF 注入 25 亿美元资金，而比特币相关产品则出现 13 亿美元的净流出。
+ i, b- \ X2 p# H9 B部分交易员目前正为市场逆转做布局。B2 风险投资公司（B2 Ventures）的阿瑟・阿齐佐夫（Arthur Azizov）预计，以太坊价格将在 3，900 美元至 4，400 美元区间盘整，但他警告称，若杠杆头寸开始平仓，以太坊价格有可能跌至 3，000 美元区间低位。周五以太坊的交易价格为 4，209 美元。
7 z% u; O, \1 Z“以太坊正进入避险情绪中，” 比特 wise（Bitwise）欧洲区负责人布拉德利・杜克（Bradley Duke）表示，“不能排除逼空行情的可能性，但目前来看，许多基金都在为回调做准备。”
( ^4 w* W9 P. C# J" \4 t9 h6 L在以往的市场周期中，比特币和以太坊的上涨往往会带动整个加密货币市场走高。但此次，其他数字代币的市场表现仍相对平静。目前来看，比特币是市场中的 “稳定锚”，而以太坊则成了波动性的 “聚集地”。
. j1 T1 c1 k/ E8 G: B这种市场分化凸显出当前加密货币市场正处于转型阶段：比特币波动性下降，逐渐成长为主流资产；以太坊则成为追求风险的交易员的投机 “游乐场”。这种分化最终会引发更广泛的山寨币（Altcoin）复苏，还是让小型代币继续被边缘化，目前仍有待观察。
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