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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员注意!——为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%(转)
[复制链接]
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比特币的SOPR接近1.02,此前该水平曾引发10%至20%的回调。尽管杠杆率上升,但稳定的交易所资金流出和适中的融资利率表明,在潜在的波动中,市场仍保持谨慎乐观的态度。) Z2 K9 C' ^; u7 u
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比特币的[BTC]截至发稿时,90 天 SOPR 已攀升至 1.018,接近历史关键水平 1.02,该水平引发了 2024 年 3 月和 2025 年 2 月的大幅回调。
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每次 SOPR 进入 1.02-1.03 区域时,比特币在两周内都会经历 10-20% 的下跌。& F! P7 \9 D" L" |' r# s8 {
* {0 d, R# l$ n9 |$ C8 [4 c5 C! X这种模式反映了一个强烈的获利回吐压力区域。在撰写本文时,比特币的交易价格约为 66,000 美元,如果 SOPR 继续上涨,市场可能会面临类似的卖方波动。+ m) H% e) f! B* e2 S
- n2 h8 w8 W( g9 ~( @5 Q! [因此,交易员们正在密切关注任何可能出现顶部过热的迹象。下一步走势或将考验多头是否有能力消化新一轮的抛售动能。! k* P! j/ |! L3 O
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比特币的实用性和采用信号是否正在减弱?
- p5 ~4 g2 G( Z- ~& z+ aNVT 和 NVM 比率均出现大幅下降,截至发稿时,NVT 下降了 11.21%,NVM 下降了 16.21%。这两个指标分别衡量了交易活跃度和网络采用率的估值。- e" m" o% q- E
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这两个比率的下降通常意味着价格上涨速度快于潜在效用或用户增长速度。因此,尽管ETF和宏观经济利好因素利好,但这两个比率的下降可能意味着交易需求正在减弱。
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如果这种差异持续存在,可能会破坏当前价格水平的可持续性。然而,这些比率的逆转也可能预示着有机网络实力的新阶段。: H" @" t8 d- s9 m! a
; h2 v# E( a/ U: m不断上升的杠杆是否会形成火药桶?
2 f! E- O' {; `9 H8 c3 a自 7 月初以来,比特币的未平仓利率加权融资利率已变得越来越正,这表明衍生品交易员的看涨倾向日益增强。& e& y9 M5 ?8 h9 U
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随着多头仓位的积累,如果价格下跌,市场就更容易遭遇突然的清算。: x( T3 f; @- |4 m) D3 U
9 @" }: K9 G- I6 }- E. s6 R- _从历史上看,这种长期激进的积累期最终都以剧烈的震荡告终。然而,融资利率一直保持相对稳定,没有出现大幅飙升,这表明市场存在谨慎的乐观情绪,而非彻底的兴奋。, s8 s4 T8 V' l8 [) p% E# `
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不过,如果SOPR突破1.02,且融资规模同时激增,则可能出现剧烈的平仓。因此,交易员可能会寻求对冲暗藏的过度杠杆状况。
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3 f5 v* |& i3 M9 W2 ?为什么尽管 SOPR 已接近危险水平,但代币仍在流出?* ]" z1 C5 l7 U0 {
截至撰写本文时,交易所净流入仍为负值,下降了2.35%,反映出持续流出,总额超过3.1万BTC。这一趋势表明,投资者仍在持续撤出比特币,可能是为了自行保管或长期持有。. K1 |3 |( Y, S
2 r- v& f' ]- \/ {2 N8 M通常情况下,SOPR 的上升预示着获利回吐的存款增加,但目前来看,这种情况尚未显现。因此,资金外流挑战了 SOPR 的看跌预期,并暗示市场正在更深层次地吸纳新资金。
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$ H3 y) ^- [$ B+ Q8 W. w, u然而,如果SOPR突破1.02,且交易所流入量突然增加,则可能确认转向分配。目前,市场仍然倾向于减少大股东的抛售压力。( V4 T1 Y( ^6 e+ j) M2 B
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比特币这次能突破 SOPR 信号吗?+ @- S0 y* h" F
比特币正接近1.02的SOPR门槛,历史上,这一水平曾引发大规模获利回吐和大幅回调。然而,稳定的交易所资金流出和适中的融资利率表明,当前的格局可能有所不同。
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' L( v1 p- K0 `0 }0 ?& y. p. |如果看涨势头保持且杠杆率保持受控,市场可能会避免再次抛售。: I3 K( ~8 J3 H6 h
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尽管如此,交易员必须保持谨慎,因为 SOPR 或融资的任何激增都可能迅速改变市场情绪,并在短期内引发波动。
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SOPR快到拐点,别太贪,市场像压着火药桶,得边走边看 |
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