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[lastpost] => 2749629 关税、就业、降息预期极限拉扯，BTC劲升9.08%，创历史新高（07.07~07.13）（转） 1752668153 mattf
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗？（转）
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称，美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
8 G$ \% D- r d! t' E; n9 ~加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。& z0 p+ t0 I i/ k: L0 G
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻，加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。
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根据 估计，预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。
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但是，对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施，债务可能会失控。( W2 S, \( n. ]5 V) g' O
2 U) U2 B$ Q0 M! d+ h他警告说，未来10年内，普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。
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1 s" p. X7 @7 C" J可能的后果是什么？增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值，并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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* v6 {% s8 s/ D3 y& b" `7 U# t# q他表示，
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“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好，而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”- A& G5 ]6 s& B3 \/ m1 O5 S8 W
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BTC 的完美风暴？! b) \$ E' |$ T7 I, n
加密货币领袖声称，这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。2 W% w" y6 ` S) Y1 D$ i+ }+ ^+ j
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作为一种固定供应的数字资产，与美元等传统货币相比，它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。
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- v# g4 a0 m$ U这些货币供应量无限，由各国央行随意印制。简而言之，BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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2 z/ N G& l/ N- {+ HBitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。 t0 I) C: Q- ]4 }2 _8 G
' S5 W' Q' j5 [2 F3 x$ dReal Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点，添加在这种贬值情况下，只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。2 ]% j7 l7 M& [3 X. H, D
9 i; r) G; V2 p“在长期牛市中，贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异：科技和加密货币。”, D. m' y# z- Q" C3 f
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比，他更倾向于黄金。5 |9 A4 }) Z- n1 z0 e7 ?# I8 B
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他表示，追踪黄金价格走势更容易，尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难，因此得出结论，比特币仍然是一种投机行为。
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E6 c+ k: @; J- B% s2 }' I然而，对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说，BTC 是数字黄金。事实上，他警告今年 4 月，如果财政债务得不到管理，人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
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即便如此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。
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“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度，这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”% |5 h. g0 h% Q: ]; c0 A
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与此同时，Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。$ Y) c4 D1 [- F0 r/ [% Q( D) g
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结果，美国财政部可能会补充（从市场借钱）其主要现金账户或TGA（国库普通账户），并挤压流动性，拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。
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* K3 T! a: p# d! a- S% Q“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性，对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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