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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，, y$ ^9 Y9 Q$ a% m3 k4 G* @0 x- E( `
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8 T! X$ `3 [& n1 v1 K$ C形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于# J( q; @, i+ e5 r& J B, k
& L) W; G2 [6 f' {- ]; @逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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$ v7 o' j7 J1 x策的确定性。4 t E9 S/ M6 e6 M& k
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中信证券主要观点如下：
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。3 g" a* e/ t3 J- J& L l8 K/ S
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。% {5 |: F6 y8 K) ^& O% W# n' m
* m z7 X; J0 h. d' i" `, b& @ 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。/ m0 C. l7 {5 q5 d1 U
! w& W6 N. l, ~ d' B 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现) ~3 U8 V, D% s2 i8 A: t- l
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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# ?% e: J/ ?* q- P% K5 b" } 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。4 F1 a0 [ ]8 F' Z# f3 q
5 d2 Q2 p9 Q" ]! M% K6 U5 { 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。: [( n9 R$ y! ]: r- y+ z( ]4 R2 X
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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0 x! i M4 n) R* Y 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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& P3 w, Q) t! H. L. I 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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$ `4 @; w6 p5 {+ h共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。" J) {' {! `7 {) ?+ X' O
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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$ `( A, N( Y' @% r! `# M$ t* c1 v 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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2 _$ x6 r: Q3 q0 f+ s' T, Q, x5 a势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。- f0 p+ h! N4 l# }" e7 ^+ e
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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% `/ @ \2 n6 U, y. z策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。8 u) j5 e9 ~+ e- ~; ?- T
/ t$ _* Y R$ C 风险因素：
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# L7 ~. U. `: Q 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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