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概率计算
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- P8 }/ z: Z( {所谓德克萨斯扑克的概率,简单说,就是等来某种获胜牌型的可能性(成牌概率),与底池提供筹码(底池概率)之间的比较,如果底池筹码足够多,高于成牌可能,就玩下去,反之就弃牌。 C0 i& P4 X/ ]+ ]9 U) {6 X' P
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底池概率(Pot Odds)
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底池概率(Pot Odds)是已有的底池筹码与你当前要下注额之间的比率。比如当前底池筹码共计$100,你需要下注$10,那么底池概率即为10:1。底池大小对于决定是否跟注很重要。
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U2 B4 l/ l7 x% b' U9 x5 T成牌概率(Odds)
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6 s- S' }! e/ F' ~这是凑成某种能够获胜牌型的可能性。比如,你的起手牌有两张红桃,翻牌圈又出现两张,那么,在转牌中等来第五张红桃的可能约为20%,即五分之一,每五次会成一次。但我们习惯用不能成牌的次数来表示,即称为成牌概率。在本例中,成牌概率大致为4:1,意思是,每五次中有4次不能成牌,有1次能成。; W( Z" f8 H; k/ R( u5 |
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成牌概率是如何计算的呢?
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1 X6 J x/ ^% Y; |" _很简单,在所有未翻开的牌中,不能帮助你的牌的数量,与能够帮助你的牌(即可等牌)的数量之间的比率,即算出成牌概率。例如,起手牌为6? 7?, 翻牌圈为A? T? 5?,目前总共有47张牌未见,其中有9张红桃将助你成为同花牌,38张不能帮助你。那么,在转牌圈中成为同花牌的概率是4.2:1(38/9);两头顺子(如89TJ)牌型有8张可等牌,成牌概率是4.9:1(39/8);同理,单头顺子(如89JQ)牌型有4张可等牌,成牌概率为10.75:1(43/4);
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+ k. C4 w8 j9 N d& o在实战中,你显然不用每次重复这个计算过程。你所要做的,就是记住APA提供的成牌概率统计表,列明了可等牌数量所对应的成牌概率。; B' i$ A J9 y* d! u
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可等牌(Out), ]% A+ k5 \9 q/ D
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这是计算成牌概率时的一个重要概念。指将在接下来的投注圈中出现,能使你凑成某种获胜牌型的来牌。( m& v" M. D6 t# p
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比如,起手牌是A? T?,翻牌又出现2张红桃,仍需要1张来助你最终成牌。目前,还有9张红桃尚未出现,那么你就有9张可等牌。如果你预计再来一张A也能获胜,那你就有12张可等牌,即9张红桃和3张A。; v& L1 K2 N/ Q# W
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概率的实际应用9 t) {% u: ]/ u0 x8 @) z
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现举一例,说明如何应用以上概率知识。你在$1/$2的有限注游戏,坐在按钮(小盲注紧右边)位置,手持K? T?,牌面来到转牌圈,为9? 2? 4? A?,你仅剩的一个对手下注$2后,底池共有$10。为了简化本例,我们假设对手现在凑成了一对A,但如果河牌(River)来另一张红桃,他将弃牌,那么,现在你会跟注,来等待河牌的那张红桃吗?6 ^9 O% h6 F f( N' w8 ]
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我们知道,持有4张同花,成牌概率约为4比1;目前你需要投注$2,来搏取$10的底池,底池概率为5:1,高于成牌概率,所以应当玩下去,跟注是正确的。但如果底池仅有$7呢?底池概率则变成3.5:1, 低于成牌概率,那么就应当弃牌。5 W+ K7 G. q: o) O
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