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[lastpost] => 2752001 德克萨斯州 MARA 控股公司的矿场因镇ZF反击比特币而面临诉讼(转) 1753454739 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。
- l( ^5 r- t9 q: Z尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。
5 Y$ T: ]/ ^0 N过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。9 Z. v9 e. [3 y; W( Y. x) @
; \4 T. @1 ^; F: }5 e随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。
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从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮
, D0 ?8 k( V! L回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔.5 h/ f( _+ P" R) j. z2 @* f
) \ M1 w( |) I4 W这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。
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6 S: y2 C0 N* m- J然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。, l( v4 y z( C" y( x# h# G
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在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。
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# \% i8 G4 _5 F' N, n3 s- |2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。
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这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。# j4 f& F3 ^% O8 U; _4 [1 y- m
* m( O, I% f A! U6 w$ `$ u2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?2 V( q; A, e7 u# H
在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。
# z6 k7 r) S$ s) L/ x4 [' H/ o# D( {+ }) w6 C
目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。5 E( s$ D# o# B: S% g3 E" ^; R4 W @
. U0 c5 ~; [1 w. h( }/ N如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。8 U+ N b1 V3 B! L7 L( z
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看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。
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4 T; p: C3 j3 H! ~7 v# r% ^从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。
4 E. m/ S7 y& w- d' E A; q( k8 _0 ^+ g4 @2 A9 M& z' K" a2 q, l
除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
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6 S: E# t5 g b$ | i# [. G6 `随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。
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1 |( ^1 J1 R) h底线
5 }5 j P. M/ `$ q% l) V因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
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- E( d/ `; `$ o0 q9 v9 R& P$ t在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。1 n! Z6 A6 k- o; {4 U) q% q
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然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。
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