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[lastpost] => 2752319 这个虚假的比特币 ATM 骗局浪费了诈骗者 4,000 个小时的时间(转) 1753625468 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。
8 }" y' z/ m$ V' {" ? U; L" Q尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。" D7 W8 q7 O$ w! Y! K
过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。
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随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。3 q" F+ r- N2 f( h% i& a+ B
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从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮4 [: v1 ~2 D& J
回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔.$ |& Z7 N! M1 F4 _* r
& W) K" z h: p" ?这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。
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然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。& a9 o- d8 e. d+ G
; T) E$ c! A7 N' [在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。
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" h% _7 M# F5 W+ A2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。
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7 R/ {. Y z+ ?- p6 C这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。9 ^1 S+ s: |1 V
* O3 L9 c) O }. N; |2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?2 s6 ]4 o3 k( ]0 @+ R
在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。
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目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。
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如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。 ^) C9 e @" z7 h
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看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。+ R/ s! U5 J; O- e# }0 Y
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从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。
: Q- i5 J0 t* K) _& J7 d
3 D8 j4 Z- B/ e9 Z) I, M6 ?: Y- x除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
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随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。/ r, w0 S! n# f. W
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底线$ {/ Q! w3 `8 m) `' z
因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
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在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。/ t# w1 p$ i! R/ A3 M" c. m
& A3 |* e, Z% b( K2 z然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。. r/ L! v! G- l" l% H+ y9 E9 L
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