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[lastpost] => 2778080 比特币、以太坊、瑞波币 2025 年 11 月价格预测，未来走势如何？（转） 1762228079 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
4月加密市场观察：关税阴霾笼罩下 比特币完成了资产价格的极限测试（转）
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加密市场二级基金Metrics Ventures 4月市场观察导读： 1/ 过去的一周即便在整个美元资产历史上都值得纪念，从美元资产价格来说，这大概率只是一次对牛熊关键支撑考验的扰动，但在整个东升西落的进程上，这次关税的全过程将成为一次重大的拐点。 2/ 我们在上月提到，MSTR、BTC调整都非常良性，新周期比特币低波动率特征显现无疑，因此我们依然看好MSTR及BTC在今年年内的行情，75,000的关键支撑位出现了天量需求，伴随着大量底背离信号，与美元资产的触底反弹形成了共振，将形成一段至少周线级别的行情。 3/ 时政并不是我们从来在公开月报上讨论的内容范围，尽管这是我们交易框架中“大胆假设”的重要部分，但站在这个史诗级周度的周末，我想过度悲观近几个月潜在的进一步美元扰动是多虑的，从价格角度上来说，市场大概率已经通过了极限测试。 市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评：单纯的市场方面，技术分析上我们只想进一步强调，在刚刚经历的这一轮市场强分歧中，美元风险资产都在相对充分的调整位置/熊市临界支撑位放出了天量，在七姐妹批量破位的情况下，MSTR和BTC走势是明显的强势反馈。 经历了前次行情高潮后，MSTR仍然能稳定每日位居美股成交额前十左右，我们认为这亦是遵循了24年10月我们在专题报告中提到的资金盘成立假设，未来预计还将源源不断地与GME等新加入BTC资金盘的资产从美股吸取流动性反哺比特币，这一模式与20年前开始的东方地产股玩法异曲同工。 人民币资产也经历了肉眼可预见的极限测试，也让我们在24年底开始诉说的军事、制造、科技及人口结构等东升西落事实被更多人了解。此刻，上证指数依然在二次跳空缺口上方盘整，随着后续货币政策的东西方同步宽松，料将有更多投资者发现东方经济在近年来发生的消费品牌升级、芯片突破等诸多趋势，而关税事件虽然在资产价格上可以看做一次冲击，但在东升西落大趋势上将成为多年后明确的加速事件。 最后，在市场情绪渐渐平复，VIX逐渐回落的前夕，我们想说，此时此刻，对于货币稳定性、主权稳定性、金融稳定性和资产安全性的担忧，正是近20年前比特币诞生时预设的场景。曾经怀揣的愿景不会因为定价权的转移而转移，但初心是否还在，也将在2025年-2026年真正的显露。
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