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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第二节]
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第二节 平手/半球初盘4 c8 L% U1 o* F' c4 p
( P% H( w5 }. D. r3 Q" o 平半降盘,主难出3* R# H3 C5 Z8 L- z
一般情况下,主队初盘让平/半只是对主场因素的考虑。在英超08-09赛季澳彩以平/半为初盘的83场比赛中,主队37胜26平20负,比率为胜45%、平31%、负24%,。虽然主胜率略高于客胜率,但是平局比率较大,使得主队不胜率高达55%。此数据与以往赛季略有出入。再看09-10赛季英超已经进行的比赛的统计。
$ M4 |) n% w* @. B f 09-10赛季半程主队平手/半球盘成绩统计:# \, T: K) ~2 Z2 b; [% e4 Q
英超主队
6 }: e' ~; C, d. E6 S. H 胜:23场 40%
7 S% ?: ] Y, Z 平:21场 36%
" j! ]1 l% u Y; u; V 负:13场:22%! T* w$ k( w E: J" m0 T5 L4 x- S
通过统计可以看到,英超平/半初盘,在09-10赛季进行时中的表现与上个赛季出入并不大。打平的比率与主胜比率已经十分接近,此盘路下足彩重点应在防平方面。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位为例,开始分析英超主队平手/半球初盘盘路。" A2 c6 K, k' a3 m
3 v f4 D- P' D! Y" S
一、初盘阶段
% r* C1 k; U/ j! ^' ] " Q' [1 u" F, h( ]) p
具体到水位如下:
* o# S/ n( z7 K! M3 C) [ 初盘低水:英超主队 5胜7平3负1 N0 p b* R+ @& ~# |
初盘中水:英超主队10胜4平4负
3 s7 |( D# Q9 A3 m0 U+ _ 初盘高水:英超主队3胜8平5负' i( A3 T# p( t1 e$ _8 z; B* e
: D5 P) y/ i" j* d& h$ H
分析:初盘阶段平/半低水,主要发生在0.76-0.85区间。其中出现最频繁的是初盘0.84低水,该水下主队1胜3平1负,主队不胜次数较多,足彩打出10的可能较大。
6 R K3 y2 j4 }+ a, ?2 w) F 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.86-0.98水位区间。该水位下主队赢球机会较大,但是客胜和平局的比率也不小。在该中水范畴内0.92-0.94区间下主队输球比率较低,足彩打出31可能很大。0.88水位出现了2次均都分出了胜负,足彩可作为30双选的备选考虑。0.96、0.98水的不确定因素较多,足彩任选9和单场建议回避,14场的大单建议全包。在中水下要特别关注的是0.86/1.00水,在英超平/半盘中,该水位下主队基本不败,足彩跑出31的几率较大。" Q& t, G: v% o0 M2 D6 r
初盘阶段高水水位,主要发生在1.00-1.10区间。该区间内主队取胜的机会并不多。其中1.02水下主队输球或不胜次数最多,足彩打出10机会较多。1.00、1.10水下几乎都是平局,足彩出1的机会很大。1.08、1.06、1.04这三种水位下主队均都输球,足彩出0的可能性需要重视。; u8 S" b3 Y% g O3 c
8 ^. ~5 d9 I+ f' `" z4 j! A, ` w 二、临场阶段4 t, V0 `$ P7 Q( j. [8 E: y
2 P* m9 ^4 ^ ]6 d 具体到盘口变化如下:5 N# K7 k v' f) o5 `
临场降为平手: 英超主队 1胜1平2负# z1 @% S7 N0 k8 U
临场升为半球: 英超主队 3胜3平1负
/ J0 r9 A* j$ V, g$ p ; y( a( M# x$ H3 U5 U3 d' i
分析:临场主队降为平手盘,英超主队只取得1次胜利,主队不胜的比率较大,足彩10的可能性极高。这里要提醒大家的是,如在主弱客强、但是主队状态或者战意强于客队时,主队初盘让平/半高水,临场降盘升水到平手高水或超高水、而诸如立博、易胜博等亚盘甚至转为主队受让平/半高水时,则要注意客队大热、主队赢球可能反倒增大。# h0 R9 d; \: x9 S7 r1 U2 R2 a& Q$ A
临场主队升盘为半球盘,即区别升盘后是造热还是阻盘的问题,统计结果是主队基本不败,足彩31格局较正路。输赢盘的盘口特征如下:
( p0 a3 p) H/ P. k& C 3 Z6 y0 d& @1 k9 F& s
狼队0-1朴茨茅斯
0 v5 K$ k0 r8 ~) H* S; P3 O) h* @ 初盘:0.76平手/半球1.10
: @* T C% K. m7 f2 R% [" D3 X 终盘:1.11半球0.75
) L2 e" z5 G5 R9 g2 y3 ~3 ` ! L+ D" S0 F7 Q9 x% Z5 b0 C3 v4 a! i
切尔西1-0曼联
6 R, |8 d( ~ v S7 r 初盘:0.78平手/半球1.08) \- j' h3 J' ~( s8 [8 V5 L/ O
终盘:0.86半球1.00$ \# D4 U& q' [8 ?$ Y& L& K
" ?$ X& R Z7 N& r
切尔西2-0利物浦. b6 Z4 K, j% |4 v3 |
初盘:0.88平手/半球0.98+ B) c2 J$ [: C3 b$ s
终盘:1.03半球0.83' W2 [2 A' a; _/ Z0 U& J
0 F7 @5 I8 G1 O
热刺3-0曼城(赢盘)
* }8 H: S" D9 B6 t 初盘:0.94平手/半球0.921 G" [8 t6 M/ f. {8 _1 I
终盘:1.03半球0.83
+ H& d; b8 V+ t. o$ |- C7 V
- R. R% M' g, b" q' P% \0 l 博尔顿1-1斯托克城8 L3 I9 E9 w1 |7 @' @. o# Y
初盘:0.86平手/半球1.00
2 O; ]4 _0 [, L: y6 u3 J 终盘:1.04半球0.829 t: q7 \7 Z f1 N
7 h0 r) b( U5 Q" J: S
提示1:初盘0.86/1.00水位作为上下盘水位,在平手盘和平/半初盘多次出现,在该水位下主队基本都不败,但要注意的是平局的次数也较多。; A7 Y' ]: u- v4 g
提示2:初盘水位0.88/0.96分胜负的概率较大。英超、英冠本赛季已经出现10场在初盘该水位下没有平局的比赛。
, _3 t* {9 S" X& G! h( s
. X V+ i; `; R8 D+ S( t; D/ f 三、球队表现
* n' o" U- F8 D! j. \% t, I ! G$ e D7 |( s1 `5 d
赢盘较多的富勒姆,在初盘让平/半于实力接近的客队时都取得了胜利,在09-10赛季的两次平/半盘中分别战胜了布莱克本和桑德兰,该队让平/半初盘时主场出3的能力值得关注。其他表现较好球队是切尔西、伯明翰、斯托克城、维冈竞技,这些队伍都在主场让平/半时赢球较多,其中切尔西本赛季在平/半初盘下取得2胜、分别战胜了曼联和利物浦,伯明翰和富勒姆目前都是4胜1平1负,维冈竞技2胜4平,这些球队在让平/半盘时客队赢球机会都很小,无特别情况足彩31值得信任。狼队是在平/半盘下很少打出平局的球队,成绩是2胜1平3负,平/半盘下该队足彩可多考虑走两头。表现较差的球队是阿森纳、朴茨茅斯、埃弗顿、维拉、赫尔城、博尔顿,这些球队在平/半初盘下都是或平或败,目前均无赢球纪录,遇到他们的赛事,足彩建议以双选01为主。
, `, S6 K9 P' R5 w8 n6 L3 u' S
, w# Z" g6 k' |, k+ W. p4 t 四、投注要点
, a `6 _3 t& ~* E1 T' l% V
, u5 F# E" A4 J: n8 S! T/ j; U ?$ _ 要点1:平/半降盘,不选3- A" H! B; Y) j4 ~# `7 Y+ _% I; b1 x
要点2:初盘低水,注意关注提示的水位
7 R5 \+ w+ X6 R. h: ^ 要点3:主队升盘,多31& h& a( Y/ A, r$ {8 u7 p
要点4:切尔西平/半、赢球多; o- n( M) Q( K& I" S4 D
要点5:兵工厂平/半、0不可少# U8 X4 m) N' d& N+ K
要点6:切尔西升盘,首3补1可省0 |
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